The NCAA Tournament officially starts on Tuesday with the First Four in Dayton as the Colorado State Rams and Virginia Cavaliers hook up with a chance to play Texas in the Round of 64 on the line.
Colorado State Rams (-2.5, 120.5) vs. Virginia Cavaliers
There is no team in the nation playing at a slower tempo than Virginia, ranking last among the 362 Division I teams in total possessions per game but its defense has performed at a completely different level at home as opposed to on the road.
Virginia ranks ninth in the nation in points allowed on a per-possession basis but surrenders 23.9 points more per 100 possessions in road games than in home games. Its opponents shoot 33.2% from 3-point range on the road as opposed to 27.7% in Charlottesville, VA.
While the amount of possessions in Tuesday’s game will be low, both teams take care of the ball and that will maximize those possessions with Colorado State and Virginia ranked 49th and fifth in the fewest turnovers committed per possession, respectively.
Both teams should also get a lot of second-chance scoring opportunities as Virginia allows opponents to rebound 29.7% of their missed shots in road games, which ranks 266th in the nation while Colorado State ranks 170th, allowing teams to rebound 27.1% of their missed shots.
Colorado State’s offense is far more efficient than Virginia’s, ranking 42nd in points scored on a per-possession basis while Virginia is 236th in this category. Virginia should be helped by Colorado State ranking 138th nationally in points allowed per possession and 189th in opponents’ 3-point shooting percentage, though.
With both teams doing a good job of not wasting possessions and each having defensive deficiencies, both teams will provide enough offense to get Tuesday’s game over the total.
The Play: Colorado State vs. Virginia Over 120.5
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