The Florida swing concludes this week with the Valspar Championship. The Copperhead Course (par 71, 7,340 yards, POA greens) of the Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor has been the home of this event since its inception in 2000. Taylor Moore won the Valspar last season (-10) and due note that the 2020 edition of this tournament was canceled due to COVID-19. The Valspar will host a full field of 156 golfers this week and there will be a standard top-65 and ties cut following the first two rounds.
The Copperhead Course is another challenging Florida venue that presents narrow fairways, penalizing rough, small putting surfaces, 74 bunkers and water in play on nine holes. Like most of the courses we have faced during the Florida swing, the Copperhead Course is a less-than-driver venue, that requires elite work with both your irons and putter if you want to succeed. Of the last five players to take home the top prize at Valspar, four finished the tournament top 15 in both SG APP and SGP.
The Copperhead Course is an untraditional par 71 that features nine par fours, five par threes and four par fives. The four par fives are by far the four easiest holes on the scorecard and exposing these holes for a birdie nearly every time you face one is essential for winning at the Copperhead Course. Notably, four of the past five victors at this Florida venue have ranked top-five in par five efficiency during their wins.
Below, I break down four of my favorite DraftKings bargain plays for the Valspar Championship, who all cost less than $7.5K.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $750K PITCH + PUTT [$200K TO 1ST]
Sam Ryder ($7,300) – Ryder finished T19th at last year’s Valspar and is a real threat for another top-20 finish at the Copperhead Course this week. After missing back-to-back cuts, the 34-year-old has regained his form in Florida, finishing T21st the Cognizant Classic and T16th at THE PLAYERS Championship in his past two starts. Despite both events being held at tricky Florida tracks, Ryder shot under par in seven of these eight rounds, and he collectively gained strokes on APP and with his putter at both these tournaments. Furthermore, Ryder notably led the world-class field at THE PLAYERS last week in birdies converted.
Ryder ranks fourth in SG APP when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds and is arguably the best value play available for the Valspar at this inexpensive salary.
Adam Schenk ($7,100) – Schenk nearly secured the first PGA TOUR win of his career at last year’s Valspar, finishing runner up to Moore by only one stroke. Schenk has finished top-20 at two of the past three Valspar Championships and should continue to impress at the Copperhead Course this week. The Purdue graduate finished T19th at THE PLAYERS last week while gaining strokes in every major category, except on the greens.
Schenk has now made 6-of-9 cuts this season, including four top-30 finishes. Additionally, the 32-year-old ranks ninth in par five performance for the year. Being an elite par five scorer is a must at the Copperhead Course and at +6500 on the DraftKings Sportsbook, Schenk is tied for the best odds to win the Valspar Championship among all the golfers priced under $7.5 for DFS purposes.
Joel Dahmen ($6,800) – Dahmen was brilliant at THE PLAYERS Championship this past week, carding a season-best T11 finish. For the week, the 36-year-old ranked third SGT2G at the difficult TPC Sawgrass, which is an extremely impressive accomplishment, considering the major-like field at THE PLAYERS. In fact, the 13.0 strokes Dahmen gained from T2G is the most he has ever gained in the category in his 10-year career on the PGA TOUR.
Dahmen has now advanced to the weekend in six of his past nine starts – with three of these finishes being top-15 results – and will look to carry this momentum over to the Copperhead Course, where he has never missed a cut in three attempts. Dahmen’s best finish at the par 71 was a T30 in 2019 and if he can replicate his ball-striking performance from TPC Sawgrass, the veteran should be in store for a career-best showing at the Copperhead Course.
Matthew NeSmith ($6,500) – Besides putting, Nesmith gained strokes in every major category at TPC Sawgrass last week, en route to a T26 finish at THE PLAYERS. The veteran carded a 5-under 67 during the second round and impressively finished the event third in par five efficiency. Nesmith will now look to build off this excellent showing at the Copperhead Course, where he has been terrific. Nesmith finished T21st in his debut at the par 71 in 2021 and then outdid himself with a T3 finish the following year. Among all the players in this field that have played the Copperhead Course more than once, Nesmith ranks third in average career finish.
The 30-year-old has been competing on the weekend in 11 of his past 15 starts and must be rostered at this sub $7K price tag.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $750K PITCH + PUTT [$200K TO 1ST]
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800- GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (AZ/CO/IA/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/ME/MI/NC/NJ/OH/OR/PA/TN/VA/VT/WV/WY), (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-522-4700 (NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV). Void where prohibited. 21+ (18+ KY/NH/WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/KY/LA(select parishes)/MA/MD/ME/MI/NC/NH/NJ/NY/OH/OR/PA/TN/VA/VT/WV/WY only. Void in ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. See terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
