The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
The Field
The Valspar Championship remains one of the more underrated stops on the PGA TOUR. Copperhead is one of the best venues on the schedule as it offers the players a fair but tough test with plenty of winding holes, lots of water, and thick rough. The placement on the schedule (after two big events in a row) means that we don’t have a ton of elite players in the field, but with Augusta on the horizon, some have decided to use this as one of their final warmup events. Justin Thomas and 2015 Valspar winner Jordan Spieth are both in the field—as of writing—along with two of the three runner-ups from last week’s event in Brian Harman and Xander Schauffele.
The field maxes out at 144 players this week, and there could certainly be some more withdraws as the week goes on. Some young players in the field to keep an eye on include Min Woo Lee, Ahskay Bhatia, and Chris Gotterup. Like most regular PGA stops, the cut will take place after Friday’s round, and the top 65 players and ties will play the weekend.
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The Course
Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Golf Resort—Palm Harbour, Florida
Par 71, 7,340 yards
Copperhead has hosted this event since its inception in 2000. It underwent a date change in 2007, and this venue has tended to play tougher since then; hence looking at course history before 2007 isn’t super useful. The other thing to note this week is that the course underwent huge renovations of greens, fairways, and some bunkers after 2015. While the design of the course didn’t change much (if at all), the changes seemingly toughened up an already hard track.
Six of the last 10 iterations of the Valpsar (all held at Copperhead ) have featured winning scores of 10-under par or less. Scoring conditions softened a touch in 2021 and 2022 but last year they grew the rough higher and brought it closer to the greens (to punish off-target shots) and we once again saw Copperhead play to its usual standards.
Copperhead is unique in that it’s a par 71 but features five (yes, five) par 3s and four par 5s. Birdies can be had on the par 5s, but the majority of them are anything but pushovers and require three good shots to even sniff a birdie putt. Placement off the tee on the par 5s and longer Par 4s is crucial as the parkland setting has several doglegs built into the course design, and heavy rough, which means that getting too wild off the tee will force layups.
The course itself isn’t brutally long, but it does play longer than its yardage due to both the doglegs and thicker rough. Long iron approaches this week will be plentiful, with the two most popular approach baskets being between 175-200 yards and 200+ yards. This almost always means more missed greens in regulation than normal, and we often see GIR% at this event trend 5-10% lower than the PGA TOUR average.
With water prevalent and placement being such a big factor, there is little doubt we need a player capable of a great all-around effort on the stat sheet. Great long-iron play is essential, and a credible off-the-tee game is a must. Last year, three of the top five finishers gained 4.0 strokes or more on approach for the week and every single one of them gained strokes off the tee as well — even if it wasn’t as significant as the gains they made on approach.
We’ve had some long-shot winners at Copperhead before (Burns was 80-1 in 2021 and Moore last year went off at 80-1 or bigger) but, generally, this is an elite ball-strikers paradise and that’s shone through in the list of past winners at this venue. For DFS research, elite approach games and long iron proximity are by far the most important stats to track. Players trending well with the putter and around the greens, who will potentially benefit from the fast overseeded poa greens, are worth noting as well.
2024 Outlook: The weather this year could certainly be a factor. Thursday morning has some medium-strength wind gusts forecast (15 mph range) with highs in the 75-80 F range. While Thursday afternoon tee times may even gain a slight advantage on day one Friday A.M. looks biblical. There are wind gusts over 30 mph expected and the potential for some rain and Thunderstorms. We may see a delay on Friday A.M. but if early tee times do have to go out the Friday P.M. wave would benefit. Things won’t necessarily be perfect on the weekend either. Temperatures go down in the 70-75 F range and the wind gusts are still expected to hover around 15-20 mph. All-in-all, expect the conditions to affect scoring and make this a grind-it-out affair, with low GIR%’s across the board.
Last 5 winners
2023—Taylor Moore -10 (over Adam Schenk -9)
2022—Sam Burns -17 (in a playoff over Davis Riley)
2021—Sam Burns -17 (over Keegan Bradley -14)
2019 — Paul Casey -8 (over Louis Oosthuizen and Jason Kokrak -7)
2018 — Paul Casey -10 (over Tiger Woods and Patrick Reed -9)
Winning Trends
— Eight of the past nine winners of the Valspar Championship had recorded at least one top 10 on the season before their victory here (Sam Burns had posted a T3 at the Genesis prior to winning in 2021 and a T9 at the API before winning in 2022).
— The last five winners of the Valspar Championship had played this event at least one time before winning. However, both Casey (2018) and Moore (2023) had missed the cut at Copperhead in their only other appearance, before winning.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
Taylor Moore (10-under-par—2023)
2023 lead-in form (35-39-MC-14-15)
SG: OTT — 3.3
SG: APP — 5.1
SG: TTG — 8.8
SG: ATG — 0.3
SG: PUTT — 5.9
- Burns again dominated on the greens at Copperhead in 2022. He gained over 9.0 strokes putting in 2021 on his way to winning and had another lights-out putting performance in 2022.
- Burns had played Valspar twice prior to his initial win in 2021 and had gained over 6.0 strokes putting on each of those previous starts.
- Winners have all tended to excel in the approach category, much like Moore last year who gained 5.1 strokes on approach. Four of the five top-five finishers from last season gained over 4.0 strokes on approach.
- Prior to Moore’s win last season, each of the winners at Copperhead from 2015 onward had gained over 1.0 strokes ATG for the week — with several gaining over 2.5 strokes around the greens.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Keegan Bradley +4000 and $8,600
Comparables:
Thorbjorn Olesen +6000 and $7,600
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Sam Burns (best finishes: win-2021/2022): Burns has played this event five times but has dominated over that short period. He’s gained over 3.0 strokes putting in every start of his career at Copperhead, and finished T6 at this event in 2023, after winning it in back-to-back seasons. You won’t see a stronger player/course correlation than Burns and Copperhead.
2. Adam Hadwin (best finishes: win-2017, T7-2022): Hadwin is another former winner of the Valspar. He’s been boom or bust at this venue, posting three MCs over the past five years but also has finishes of T12 in 2018 and T7 in 2022 (to go along with his 2017 win). He’s not likely to be highly owned after missing the cut badly at Sawgrass.
3. Justin Thomas (best finishes: T3-2022, T10-2023): Thomas has knocked on the door at this event before. The American finished T3 back in 2022 and has finished inside the top 20 in five of six career starts at Copperhead. He’s tended to excel with his irons around this setup and gained 7.4 strokes on approach here in 2022.
4. Matthew NeSmith (best finishes: 3rd-2022): Despite not playing last year, NeSmith ranks fifth in strokes gained total stats at Copperhead over the past five seasons. He finished 3rd at this event last year and T21 in 2021. He came to life last week at Sawgrass (T26) and could be a sleeper to watch in big GPPs for DFS.
5. Scott Stallings (best finishes: win-2012, T9-2019): Stallings didn’t play this event last year but still ranks third in strokes gained total stats at this event over the past five seasons. He’s made the cut in five straight appearances at Copperhead and finished T9 back in 2021.
Recent Form
1. Xander Schauffele ($11,200; T2-T25): Schauffele had a big week at Sawgrass, finishing T2, gaining 5.0 strokes putting and on approach. He’s still looking for his first win since 2022 but is playing well enough to win.
2. Brian Harman ($9,800; T2-T12): Harman was a putt away from making a playoff last week, gaining 9.0 strokes on approach. He’s finished T2 and T12 now in his last two Flordia swing starts.
3. Doug Ghim ($8,400; T16-T16-T8): Ghim comes into this week playing solid golf. He’s finished T16 or better in five straight events and has gained over 1.5 strokes on approach in all five of those starts.
4. Maverick McNealy ($8,100; T9-T41): McNealy is coming off a great PLAYERS where he finished T9 and gained over 7.9 strokes ATG. He’s made six cuts in a row with two top 10 finishes in that span.
4. Sam Ryder ($7,300; T16-T21): Ryder has played well in his last two starts. The American finished T16 at THE PLAYERS and gained strokes everywhere, including 4.6 strokes putting.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Go with Ghim
It’s hard not to like the value of Doug Ghim ($8,400) this week. While he’s not someone who has ever won a ton of titles (he’s never won as a pro) Ghim has a very strong tee-to-green game and has now produced four made cuts in a row and four straight top 20s, some against much tougher fields than the one in play this week. If you use Ghim as a cornerstone that also means you can have room at the top for a player like Cameron Young ($9,600) who can be frustrating for betting but has produced a lot of top finishes of late — and gained over 6.0 strokes on approach at Sawgrass. Other names to consider for this format include Sam Ryder ($7,300) and Davis Thompson ($7,000).
Tournaments: Bezuidenhout can breakthrough
South Africans have a strong history at this event (both Retief Goosen x2 and Charl Schwartzel have won at Copperhead) making this potentially a great breakthrough spot for a younger talent like Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,800). While he’s priced up this week the 2x winner on the DP World Tour gained 7.0 strokes on approach at TPC Sawgrass and has already posted a runner-up finish this year (back in January at the American Express). Another name coming off a strong PLAYERS is Matthew NeSmith ($6,500) who nearly won on Copperhead back in 2022. NeSmith gained 5.2 stroke ball-striking last week and has gained over a stroke putting at Copperhead in his two career appearances. Other potential GPP targets this week include Sungjae Im ($9,400), Daniel Berger ($7,200), and Kevin Yu ($6,900).
MY PICK: Justin Thomas ($10,400)
Considering the slump Justin Thomas has been through, it was likely asking too much of him to break through at an event with as much pressure as THE PLAYERS, and on a course as tricky as TPC Sawgrass. However, this week’s test could prove to be a much more inviting setting. Copperhead has always produced good golf from the two-time major winner as he’s only finished outside the top 20 once in five career Valspar starts and has gained strokes around the greens at Copperhead in five straight appearances as well.
That last point is poignant in some ways as last week at Sawgrass it was the scrambling and putting that did Thomas in. He gained 4.7 strokes on approach in two rounds (his best mark of the season in that metric) but lost a combined 4.6 strokes putting + ATG. While he’s now missed the cut in two of his last four starts he’s also finished T12 in two of those last four starts, as well, and was within reach of leaders going into the final round at Bay Hill.
He should be somewhat of a contrarian pick for DFS on DraftKings this week as well — after missing the cut last week — and his +1400 outright odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook still make for an excellent target for betting, given his past history at this event and his history of excelling on the Florida swing.
MY SLEEPER: Victor Perez ($6,900)
It’s hard not to like the chances of Victor Perez this week to play the role of spoiler. The 31-year-old is coming off a T3 at the Puerto Rico Open (he didn’t qualify for Sawgrass) where he shot a final round 65 and nearly got himself into a playoff. Thus far on the season, he’s produced three made cuts against two misses in five PGA starts but has been able to gain strokes OTT and on Approach in all five of those starts — and certainly has not looked out of place as a regular on the American Tour.
A three-time winner on the DP World Tour, Perez looks poised to become more of a regular name on this side of the pond and the kind of ball-striking he’s showcased thus far should play well around Copperhead, where he placed T45 in 2023 — and gained 2.4 strokes putting for the week. This week is also a rarity for Perez as Copperhead is one of the few venues on the PGA that he has played before. With him also coming off a week of rest, and a huge finish in Puerto Rico his last time out, the chances for some continuation from the Frenchman seem high.
He looks undervalued at just $6,900 in price in DFS and (considering his professional resume) is a solid longshot target in the outright market at +8000 on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
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