The No. 1 overall seed is no surprise this season as the reigning champion UConn Huskies put together another very impressive season. The Huskies put a bow on that season by winning the Big East Tournament for the first time in over a decade. UConn enters the 2024 NCAA Tournament as the betting favorite to win it all and repeat at +450 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Everything should be smooth sailing for Dan Hurley’s group to get back to the Final Four, right? Well, not so fast. The committee must know something or see this field much different than the rest of us. Perhaps the committee already had the bracket set before conference tournaments. Because that’s what this East Region feels like. It feels like an absolute gauntlet. Did UConn get a raw deal with this region or are we just overreacting a bit? Let’s break it down.
East Region
No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Stetson
No. 8 FAU vs. No. 9 Northwestern
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 UAB
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 13 Yale
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Duquesne
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Morehead State
No. 7 Washington State vs. No. 10 Drake
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 South Dakota State
At first glance, it appears everything is fine. This is fine. Wait a second. UConn would potentially have to face Florida Atlantic in the second round. The same Owls who advanced to the Final Four last season. And wait, there’s another familiar team from last season in San Diego State, who defeated FAU in the Final Four before losing to the Huskies in the National Championship. Of course, both teams are different from last season but not by much. There’s a chance UConn has to face both FAU and SDST before reaching the Elite Eight.
If it isn’t San Diego State in the Sweet 16, it could be the SEC Champion Auburn Tigers, led by Bruce Pearl and a very talented roster. Auburn has the sixth-best odds to win it all at +1400 on DKSB. So if it isn’t a Final Four team from last season, it’s a very, very tough Auburn team. Pearl has led this program to the Final Four, back in 2018-19. That’s just the top half of the East Region for UConn.
Moving down, all we find are two more conference champions — No. 3 Illinois and No. 2 Iowa State. The Illini beat Wisconsin and Nebraska en route to a Big Ten title. Wisconsin had just beat No. 1 seed Purdue the round before. The Big Ten has not fared well in the tournament in recent years but this Illinois team is very talented. Terrence Shannon Jr. could go off in any game and could single-handedly end any teams run. He might be the best pure scorer in the tournament and scored 102 total points in three games in the conference tournament. UConn has what it takes to shut down Shannon but it won’t be easy.
Iowa State was set to be the most trendy Final Four pick outside the No. 1 seeds until we found them in the Huskies’ side of the bracket. All the Cyclones did was win the toughest conference in the nation by dismantling No. 1 seed Houston in the Big 12 Final. ISU held the Cougars to 41 points in the win. Houston had been on an 11-game winning streak. We talk about UConn’s defense but the Cyclones are the top-ranked defensive team on KenPom. What may be concerning for Iowa State is a few non-conference losses but other than that, they could be the toughest out in the tournament.
Oh yeah, and we almost forgot BYU. The Cougars rank 16th on KenPom and are a 6-seed in this region, which doesn’t really compute. BYU has a lot of losses and doesn’t play much defense. They also have wins over Kansas, Texas, Iowa State and the ACC tournament champion NC State Wolfpack. BYU could flame out in the first round to Duquesne. The Cougars could also knock off Illinois and go on a run.
This just doesn’t make much sense. If you’re on the committee you can’t look at this region and make an argument for it being the easy path for the No. 1 overall seed Huskies. There’s just no way. So the only question left to ask is, why? Perhaps they view teams like Tennessee, Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, Marquette, Baylor and Creighton as better teams. That’s completely fair. Not all conference tournament runs translate in the NCAAs. But if UConn is going to run the table again and repeat as champions, it’s going to be a much more impressive feat than last season’s run. It will have to be.
