The St. John’s Red Storm will be playing at Madison Square Garden in the Big East Tournament Semifinals on Friday with a golden opportunity to bolster their NCAA Tournament odds against the reigning National Champion Connecticut Huskies.
St. John’s Red Storm vs. Connecticut Huskies (-10, 146.5)
The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee announced that Big East Tournament games will count as home games for St. John’s and the metrics show how different the team has been when playing at home versus playing on the road.
The Red Storm entered the Big East Tournament ranked 97th in the nation in points allowed on a per-possession basis but that improves to 34th at home — allowing 15.2 points fewer per 100 possessions at home than on the road.
While the Huskies are one of the most complete teams in college basketball, ranking top 10 in both points scored and points allowed on a per-possession basis, their defense that ranks sixth in points allowed on a per-possession basis at home isn’t the same when playing on the road. UConn ranks 118th in that same category in road games, allowing 18.4 points more per 100 possessions in a road or neutral court setting.
Both teams have rather large splits in the perimeter defense game at home versus on the road with Connecticut ranking 20th in opponent home 3-point shooting percentage at 28.3%. That percentage balloons to 34.7% when playing on the road, good for 198th in the nation. St. John’s ranks 339th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage on the road at 38.2% but that falls all the way to 30.2% at home, good for 62nd.
The Red Storm are also one of the few teams that can match Connecticut’s size and physicality on the glass, entering Thursday ranked 29th in rebound rate. The Huskies rank fourth in rebound rate but the Red Storm blocks more shots than Connecticut, ranking eighth in the nation.
With St. John’s on a six-game win streak since Rick Pitino called out many of his players following its loss to Seton Hall on Feb. 18 and offense totaling 80 points in every one of these games, we’ll be watching for an upset alert.
The Play: St. John’s +10
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