As the 2023-24 NBA season begins to wind down, the standings in both conferences suggest the playoff and play-in tournament field has largely been settled. Barring significant winning streaks from teams who haven’t done much winning, we know which 10 teams in each conference are going to keep playing once the final day of the regular season is complete. What we don’t know is which teams have an automatic playoff spot and which teams will be in the play-in tournament, which was first introduced in 2020.
The first play-in tournament had a different format from the current iteration. It had the No. 8 and No. 9 teams play each other as long as they were within four games of each other in the Orlando bubble, with the lower seed having to win two games to advance before the higher seed won just once. The current format has expanded the selection to the No. 7 and No. 10 seed. The No. 7 and No. 8 seeds play each other for the No. 7 seed in the playoffs. The loser of this game will play the winner of the No. 9 vs. No. 10 game for the No. 8 seed in the playoffs. The loser of the 9-10 game goes home.
When the concept was first introduced, there was pushback. Lakers forward LeBron James said whoever came up with “that shit” needed to be fired, while Mavericks owner Mark Cuban called the tournament an “enormous mistake” despite voting in favor of it. Ironically, James has advanced out of the tournament twice while Cuban’s Mavericks tanked the final games last year to avoid having to play in the bracket and potentially lose their draft pick. Former Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts told The Ringer he thought the tournament would be popular, although the No. 7 and No. 8 teams won’t like it.
Intentions of the play-in tournament
Prior to the play-in tournament, the NBA was experiencing teams making “rebuilding” decisions at the end of the regular season since they were out of the playoff picture. This included resting healthy players, giving inexperienced ones big minutes and effectively giving away games. To avoid this level of tanking, the league introduced two additional spots for a possible playoff berth. The goal of this was to keep teams competing until the end of the season.
That hasn’t worked as well as intended. A lot of teams still tank and the play-in tournament has featured at least one sub-.500 team every year. That’s likely going to be the case again in 2023-24. The Mavericks last year became the first known instance of a team intentionally trying to get out of the play-in tournament by resting stars, effectively giving the league office the middle finger. So the jury’s still out here.
The secondary goal in attempting to prevent blatant tanking was to add value to the regular season over the full 82 games. As last season and this season have shown, the play-in tournament has actually further devalued the regular season.
2023 play-in results and consequences
James and Lakers did need all 82 games in the regular season a year ago to get the No. 7 seed, which has effectively been an automatic playoff spot. The No. 7 seed has never missed the playoffs from the play-in tournament, and has only played in the second game as a win-or-go home once. That was the Heat last year, which we’ll get to in a moment.
The Lakers would make a run to the Western Conference Finals, but they were only one game ahead of the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds. A game here or there goes differently and James likely wouldn’t have had the opportunity to even compete in the postseason under the old format. The Lakers also benefitted from winning the first play-in game, getting nearly a week off to recover before the playoffs. That’s something they couldn’t have done as a typical No. 7 seed in the old format. We’ll see if James’ opinion on the bracket has changed, since the Lakers are likely going to be in it again in 2023-24.
The Heat were a few minutes away from sitting at home, coming back to beat the Bulls in the second play-in game. Miami went on to make the Finals, becoming the second No. 8 seed and the first team from the play-in tournament to make the championship series. While that run created excitement for the league and probably boosted ratings, it has given players and teams ideas on how to best manage their campaigns.
A fail-safe or a loophole or both?
The Lakers and Heat are once again set to be in the play-in but that hasn’t hurt their title odds. Los Angeles is +2500 to win the title at DraftKings Sportsbook and Miami is just behind at +3000, putting the teams eighth and ninth in the table. The Thunder, in contention for first in the West, are +2200 for comparison. The Knicks and Timberwolves, who are both likely to be automatic playoff teams, are +3500 each. The play-in tournament has allowed the Lakers and Heat to manage their best players without much reason to fret while also not caring too much about results over 82 games. Both teams have older stars and can benefit from extra rest, as last year showed. The Warriors, who are +4000 to win the title, are in a similar spot with a veteran core. They are likely to be in the No. 10 spot in the West but they are seen as a better bet to win it all than the Cavaliers, Kings and Pelicans.
Given how tight the standings are in both conferences, the 76ers and Suns could also be in the play-in tournament. The 76ers are +2200 to win it all and the Suns are +1800. Of the eight teams in the play-in tournament, there’s a possibility five could be in the top 10 in title futures. If that doesn’t show the regular season has lost meaning, I don’t know what does.
Some will argue the play-in tournament offers a soft landing to teams facing injury issues. The 76ers are missing Joel Embiid, who clearly makes them a contender. The play-in tournament allows them to stay in the mix while he recovers, and the postseason would be better with him in it. The same thing goes for the Heat, who have dealt with injuries to their key players. The Lakers have been healthy, but know a lot about the injury bug. The same goes for the Warriors and Suns. Is the league attempting to create a fail-safe so that its best teams can still potentially be in the field? It’s possible, especially since the bracket has been received well by the audience.
Ratings and the next media rights deal
According to Sports Media Watch, play-in tournament ratings have been largely strong despite the regular season seeing viewership go down. This partly has to do with which teams have played in the bracket, but it also shows fans do care more about these games than the regular season. If the fans care more, it’s possible the players and teams give them more importance too. The automatic playoff spot is obviously better, but the play-in can allow them to go at 80% or less during regular season games if needed.
The NBA is about to negotiate a new media rights deal amid a volatile landscape in the industry. Depending on how the play-in tournament shapes up, this could be an absolute coup for the league.
Imagine a scenario where Embiid, Jimmy Butler, James, Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are all competing in elimination games. The narratives are easy to formulate and the drama is real, something the regular season cannot replicate even on tentpole events like Christmas Day or a primetime game on a weekend. While I don’t believe the league will be rooting for that particular scenario, the play-in tournament has absolutely benefitted the NBA when it comes to getting a media deal.
What this means for the regular season
At the moment, the regular season is likely to stay at 82 games. Players have expressed a desire to shorten the campaign to 60-65 games, but will refuse to take the pay cut that the owners say comes with a game reduction. Even with a reduced campaign, the play-in tournament is unlikely to go away. The NBA put in minimum game requirements for award consideration but there’s only one award which really matters.
The In-Season Tournament has created some excitement, and it seemed to be well received by fans. The bonuses gave players some incentive and the games still counted towards the regular season. Perhaps that tournament can be moved to after Christmas Day, when the NFL also starts to wind down. It might allow the league to scrap the All-Star Game too, which would benefit everyone.
I don’t see the regular season changing any time soon, but I do see it continue to get less attention. As long as the play-in tournament exists, players and teams will continue to view it as an opportunity to go at less than 100% during the 82-game campaign before turning things on for the games that really matter.