The 2024 Mountain West Conference Tournament will take place from Wednesday, March 13 through Saturday, March 16 from the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. All 11 of the conference’s programs will participate in this single-elimination bracket and the winner will receive the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
A handful of MWC teams are already considered locks for the NCAA Tournament and what they do in Vegas this week has no bearing on their inclusion into the Big Dance. Meanwhile, there are several teams whose only path to the NCAA’s is through winning the league tournament and grabbing the automatic qualifier.
And then there’s the bubble teams, whose performance in the MWC tourney can make or break their shot at getting into the field of 68. We’ll take a look at those teams below.
2024 March Madness bubble watch
MWC Tournament
Teams that are in: Utah State, Nevada, Boise State, San Diego State
Teams that are out: UNLV, Wyoming, Fresno State, San Jose State, Air Force
Teams on the bubble
New Mexico — 22-9, 10-8 MWC (29 NET, 34 KenPom)
Quad 1: 2-6
Quad 2: 4-1
Quad 3: 6-1
Quad 4: 9-1
New Mexico was holding its own near the top of the MWC standings early on, but an inconsistent finish to the regular season slate pulled it down towards the bubble. Wins over San Diego State and Utah State are the Lobos’ best wins, but a horrible Quad 4 home loss to Air Force on February 4 is what dragged them straight down into bubble territory.
The good news for UNM is that it is are considered one of the last four teams in according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and Bracketometry’s Dominic Lese. As the No. 6 seed in the MWC tournament, the Lobos will open against No. 11 Air Force before potentially facing No. 3 Boise State in round two. If they handle business against the last-place team and acquit themselves well against the Broncos, they should make the cut. If they fall on their face against the Falcons right out the gate, however, they’ll most likely be out of the NCAA Tournament field.
Colorado State — 22-9, 10-8 MWC (36 NET, 36 KenPom)
Quad 1: 5-6
Quad 2: 3-2
Quad 3: 7-1
Quad 4: 5-0
Similar to New Mexico, Colorado State was well in the mix of MWC contenders before hitting choppy waters with a three-game losing streak towards the end of the year. An early-season victory over Creighton is the crown jewel of their resume and they were able to supplement that with more quality victories in conference play.
CSU is among the “last four byes” according to Lunardi, so it is trending towards being in the field. As the No. 7 seed in the MWC tourney, the Rams will just have to knock off No. 10 San Jose State in the first round to get in.