The Denver Nuggets (45-20) begin a four-game road trip Wednesday when they face the Miami Heat (35-29) in a rematch of the 2023 NBA Finals. The Nuggets won that series 4-1, and won the previous matchup this season between the teams 103-97. Denver has triumphed in three straight to move up to second in the Western Conference, while the Heat have dropped three in a row.
The Nuggets are clean on the injury front. Jimmy Butler is listed as probable for Miami, while Tyler Herro and Kevin Love are out. Josh Richardson is done for the season with a shoulder injury.
The Nuggets are 4.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook and the total comes in at 215.5. Denver is -180 on the moneyline while Miami is +150.
Nuggets vs. Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Nuggets -4.5
Denver won both games in Miami during last year’s Finals, defeating the Heat by double digits both times. The setup is similar here since Herro is once again not suiting up for Miami. The Nuggets are 13-18-1 ATS as the road team and 9-13-1 ATS as the road favorite but the Heat are 12-19 ATS as the home team and 1-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Herro’s presence could’ve changed some things in this game, and in last year’s Finals. However, the Nuggets are rolling right now and should be able to sweep the season series between these clubs. Take Denver to win and cover tonight.
Over/Under: Under 215.5
The Nuggets are 12-20 to the over as the road team this season, and the Heat are 15-16 to the over as the home side. Denver has actually gone over its totals in four of the last five games but those were mostly at home. The Heat have gone under in their last three games and five of their last seven. More importantly, four of the five games in last year’s Finals went under this line. I like the under to hit again Wednesday.