In a surprise move on Monday on the first day of NFL Free Agency, the Green Bay Packers are reportedly signing RB Joshua Jacobs to a contract. It’s also being reported that this deal means Green Bay is going to release veteran RB Aaron Jones, who had one year remaining on his contract. RB AJ Dillon became a free agent at noon on Monday and is expected to go elsewhere. With all this news, we’re going to break down what the deal means for fantasy football, the Packers offense and Jones and Jacobs.
Josh Jacobs contract with Packers
Update — This situation is moving very fast, actually. Diana Russini is reporting that Jones could find a new team soon and things are moving quickly. There are plenty of suitors, including the Cowboys and New York Jets. We’ll break down Jones’ fantasy value when we know where he’s headed.
Update — NOT SO FAST. It appears Jones is being released but he could return to Green Bay if he can’t find a better offer elsewhere.
This is the scenario where Jones tests the market and see if he can find something better than what the #Packers are offering. If he can’t, there’s a chance he would come back. How the Jacobs signing affects his point of view could determine if he would even consider a return. https://t.co/ryg3e8d7iD
— Tom Silverstein (@TomSilverstein) March 11, 2024
Update — With Jones being released, this obviously changes a lot of what was written below. Jacobs becomes a very easy top-10 RB in all fantasy football formats. We’ll have to wait and see what happens with Jones. He could sign with the Dallas Cowboys given how well he’s played at AT&T Stadium and with Tony Pollard going to the Titans.
Anyway, with Jacobs the lead back, he has the upside in this offense to be the top back in all of fantasy football. That’s what he was a few seasons ago when he led the League in rushing. This is also the best QB, coaching staff and team Jacobs has played for in his NFL career.
There’s a lot to unpack here. If the report is accurate and the Packers keep both Jones and Jacobs, it’s going to be difficult to project either for fantasy football purposes. We can see a bit into how the two might be used based off of what we saw with Jones and Dillon the past few seasons. But Jacobs is a two-time Pro Bowler who has led the NFL in rushing yards (2022). He is coming off a down season in 2023 with just 805 rushing yards with an additional 37 catches on 54 targets for 296 yards and a total of six touchdowns with the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders weren’t very good and Jacobs played with backup caliber QBs all season.
Jones is signed through 2024 and then can become a free agent next offseason. We don’t yet know what the terms of the contract for Jacobs is. Let’s assume it’s somewhere in the 3-4 year range with some guaranteed money and an opt out in the last year. If that’s the case, the Packers can have Jacobs be the lead back after Jones walks next season. Jacobs would still be in his prime for a few seasons before Green Bay can find a replacement.
The Packers could look to the 2024 NFL Draft or even wait till 2025 to draft another running back. Whoever that player is can sit behind Jacobs for a season or two before taking over. Jones is also coming off a down season with just 656 rushing yards with 30 catches on 43 targets for 233 yards and three total TDs in 11 games. Jones looked healthy toward the end of the season and playoffs but struggled during the regular season. Having both Jacobs and Jones gives the Packers two lead backs and a 1A-1B type of situation. When Jones was out during the 2023 regular season, the Packers run game struggled with just Dillon.
Fantasy football impact
So what does this mean for fantasy? It likely means Jones won’t have RB 1 or 2 value anymore. At times, he was a good RB2/FLEX play in 2023. He reached 20+ carries in four of 11 games this past season and went for over 100 rushing yards in three of those contests. He was used in the passing game but wasn’t nearly as effective as in the past. Jones did get healthy toward the end of the season and torched the Dallas Cowboys for over 120 total yards and three TDs in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. He was also good vs. the Niners in the Divisional matchup with 108 rushing yards on 18 carries.
But if Jones and Jacobs are splitting carries to some extent, it’s hard to find good value in Jones. You’d expect Jacobs to be the goal-line back in this two-headed dragon. Jacobs is a good pass-catcher but Jones is a bit smaller and more elusive while Jacobs has better size at 223 lbs. Jacobs is also three years younger than Jones and hasn’t dealt with injuries much in his five seasons in the NFL. So Jones should fall down in fantasy football drafts for 2024. He’s not a bad handcuff to Jacobs and will still hold some FLEX value in PPR formats. In standard, it’s difficult to view Jones as more than a handcuff or depth move for your bench.
As for Jacobs’ fantasy value, you’ve got to like him a lot if he is going to be the lead back. We saw what he did a few seasons ago and the Packers offense should be very good this upcoming season. QB Jordan Love is coming off a career year and was second in the NFL in TD passes with 32. We saw the emergence of a very good, young wide receiving group led by Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks. It’s going to be very difficult for defenses to match up with Green Bay when the offense goes four-wide with TE Tucker Kraft/Luke Musgrave, plus Jacobs in the backfield.
With that said, Jacobs should still be viewed as a top-15 RB in fantasy football. His upside is very high in this offense and we’ve seen in the past what head coach Matt LaFleur can do with a healthy and elite RB. In 2019, MLF’s first season with the Packers, Jones rushed for over 1,000 yards, had almost 500 receiving yards and led the NFL with 16 rushing touchdowns. If Jacobs is used as the lead back and Jones takes a backseat, Jacobs can absolutely put up those type of numbers. Before this move, Jacobs was being viewed as a fringe top-10 back. This move could boost his ADP but we still don’t know how the two will be used.
