The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: $2.4M 2024 Golf Premiere Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry] (PGA TOUR)
The Field
THE PLAYERS Championship is the first big event on the golfing calendar for 2024. While not technically a major, THE PLAYERS still possesses a major-caliber field and one of the biggest prize pools of the season (25M and 4.5M to first place). There will be 144 players teeing it up, which is expanded from the 69 players we saw last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, with the top 125 from the previous season’s FedEx Cup points list making up the majority of the qualifiers.
A great field is part of what makes THE PLAYERS special, but it also has a host course in TPC Sawgrass that brings a lot of volatility and scoring swings into play with its smaller greens and precariously placed water hazards. For DFS purposes, this event is one of the toughest to navigate, as the elite players tend to miss cuts at Sawgrass at a higher rate than any other event on the schedule — hence, getting 6/6 players through the cutline for DFS is always a huge accomplishment. This event has produced some shock-type winners for betting, as well, with Craig Perks (2002) and, more recently, Si Woo Kim (2017). The last four iterations have also seen Lee Westwood, Jim Furyk, and Anirban Lahiri finish in the runner-up position.
Despite the elevated event status, the cut line at the PLAYERS remains the same as a regular PGA TOUR stop in that the top 65 players (and ties) will get to play the weekend after Friday.
The Course
TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida)
Par 72, 7,275 yards depending on setup; Greens: TifEagle Bermuda (overseeded with Poa trivialis)
TPC Sawgrass is a stadium course that was designed and created specifically for this event in 1981. It was designed by Pete Dye (his wife Alice is responsible for the island green on 17), who has also designed a lot of courses in the PGA TOUR rotation, including Hilton Head at the RBC Heritage and TPC Stadium, host of the American Express. Sawgrass features hard-to-hit, smaller-than-normal greens and water that comes into play on nearly every hole (17/18). While it’s got some links to the other Florida venues we see venues like Colonial, Sedgefield and Harbour Town golf links likely provide the best correlation for results.
The course itself is set up as a traditional par 72 (four par 5s and four par 3s), but each hole presents a unique challenge to players. While the 17th island green can be tricky on Sunday, it’s the 18th hole that plays as one of the hardest on the course every year and requires a pinpoint drive over water on a semi-dogleg setup. The rest of the course is made up of risk-reward par 5s and a couple of treacherous if less well-known, par 3s. As for the par 4s, five of them come in at 450 yards or more and tend to stress longer approaches, while only three will play at under 400 for the week.
The fairways at Sawgrass are generally easier to hit than an average PGA TOUR stop, but placement on certain sides is still key. Three of the last four winners of the PLAYERS (Scheffler, Thomas and McIlroy) gained multiple strokes off the tee, but it’s worth noting that 2022 winner, Cameron Smith, lost over 5.0 strokes off the tee.
Smith’s splits are extreme and not likely to be repeated anytime soon, but it still emphasizes the point that if a player is hitting his irons well and scrambling well at Sawgrass, he has a chance. GIR%’s at Sawgrass, historically, are well below the PGA average (3-6%), and scrambling is also tougher than normal at Sawgrass (5% below the TOUR average). On that note, one thing the last four winners all have in common is that they gained over 6.0 strokes on approach for the week — and finished top six for the week in the strokes gained approach stat. Proximity and GIR% are key to both avoiding the big mistakes on Sawgrass and taking advantage of the birdie chances when they arrive.
The move to March in 2019 has seen scoring stay on the easier side, with greens playing a little softer (as the Bermuda grass here is still somewhat dormant in March). Weather can always be a factor but this season, outside of a little light rain, the conditions should be decent. While we have seen big, established names win this event every season since it moved to March we have also seen some extreme longshots finish runner-up and top five. For DFS purposes, finding the deep value names that are in form and have the potential to spike on this unique venue this week will undoubtedly be the key to success in big daily fantasy GPPs.
2024 Weather Outlook: Thursday has winds staying in the 8-10 mph range with things ramping up a little in the afternoon after a clamer morning. Friday does have much higher winds with gusts set to reach 15-20 mph around 1-3 pm. That could make Friday afternoon the wave to fade if you are planning on stacking in DFS. Exposure to both sides of the draw is always smart but, right now, the TH p.m. / FRI a.m. wave looks to be in a slightly better spot. Things die down a little on Saturday and we could see some low rounds on day three. However, winds do pick up again a little on Sunday and certainly scrambling and around the green play could be a bigger factor this week with gusts over 15mph forecast on two of the four days.
Last 5 winners
2023—Scottie Scheffler -17 (over Tyrrell Hatton -12)
2022—Cameron Smith -13 (over Anirban Lahiri -12)
2021—Justin Thomas -14 (over Lee Westwood -13)
2020—COVID-19 (no event)
2019—Rory McIlroy -16 (over Jim Furyk -15)
2018—Webb Simpson -18 (over Charl Schwartzel and two others -14)
Winning Trends
– 10 of the last 12 winners of THE PLAYERS had already achieved a T4 or better finish on the PGA TOUR in the same calendar year of their victory.
– 14 of the last 15 winners of THE PLAYERS had achieved a finish of 23rd or better at THE PLAYERS in a previous year.
– The last six winners of THE PLAYERS had all finished T22 or better in their previous start (aka, the one directly prior to their PLAYERS win).
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2023 Winner: Scottie Scheffler (17-under par)
2023 lead-in form (T4-T12-win-T11-T7)
SG: OTT—+4.5
SG: APP—+7.6
SG: TTG—+17.2
SG: ATG—+5.0
SG: PUTT—+0.1
- Since 2011, two winners (Simpson 2018, Smith 2022) have finished outside the top 10 for the week in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green stats. Simpson and Smith both were massively positive with the putter for the weeks of their win with great around-the-green stats as well.
- Players at Sawgrass have excelled in a variety of different ways, but good play around the green has been one of the biggest constants. Greens here are small, and GIR%’s are generally well below the PGA TOUR average for the event.
- The last seven winners here have all gained +1.5 strokes or more around the greens for the week of their win and four of the past seven winners have gained +3.0 strokes or more around the greens (Scheffler gained 5 strokes ATG last season).
- Four of the last nine winners didn’t crack the top twenty in Off the Tee stats for the week of their win, but six of the last seven winners have gained +4.0 strokes Approach or more for the week.
- From an approach perspective, Sawgrass requires a good blend of shorter (125-150 yards) and longer approaches (>200 yards). The dogleg setups and risk-reward par 5s mean good long-iron players will have a big advantage here.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Min Woo Lee +5000 and $8,000
Comparables:
- Tom Kim +5500 and $8,100
- Tony Finau +5500 and $8,500
- Russell Henley +5500 and $8,600
Ludwig Aberg +3000 and $9,300
Comparables:
- Collin Morikawa +3500 and $9,400
- Jordan Spieth +3500 and $9,500
- Max Homa +3000 and $9,600
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Justin Thomas ($10,600 best finishes: win-2021): The 2021 winner of this event also finished T3 at Sawgrass in 2016 and has never missed the cut at THE PLAYERS in eight appearances. He’s third in strokes gained total stats at Sawgrass over the past six years, and comes in with solid form posting T12 finishes in two of his last three starts.
2. Tom Hoge ($7,800; best finishes: T3-2023, T22-2021): Hoge has been great at this event. Over the entirety of his career, he’s never missed a cut (5/5) at Sawgrass and has gained over 2.0 strokes on approach in each of his last four starts. His T3 last season saw him gain 11.7 strokes tee to green around TPC Sawgrass.
3. Keegan Bradley ($7,900; best finishes: T5-2020, T7-2018): Bradley is second in strokes gained total stats at TPC Sawgrass over the past five seasons. The veteran has the kind of consistent tee-to-green game that keeps him out of trouble in Florida and has done well around the Sawgrass greens, gaining strokes ATG at this event in four of the past five seasons.
4. Si Woo Kim ($8,000; best finishes: win-2017): 2017 shock winner Si Woo Kim has shown a solid penchant for playing well on tricky Pete Dye designs. He finished T23 at this event on his first attempt in 2016 and won on his second in 2017. Kim has made the cut in six of seven appearances at THE PLAYERS, with his only blemish being a WD (injury) from 2022. He also has a win at the AMEX, which is played on TPC Stadium, another Dye design.
5. Adam Hadwin ($7,500; best finishes: T9-2022): Hadwin will be a little under the radar this week but he does have a solid record to rely on at Sawgrass. The Canadian finished T13 at this event last season and was T9 in 2022. Overall, he’s 6/7 in terms of made cuts at Sawgrass over the last seven seasons and has shown a penchant for playing well on Pete Dye designs.
Recent Form
1. Scottie Scheffler ($12,800, win-T10-T3): Scheffler broke through last week for his sixth win. The American finally caught fire with his putter gaining 4.3 strokes on Bay Hill’s greens. If he putts like that this week he’ll likely be taking home his second PLAYERS win this Sunday.
2. Shane Lowry ($9,100, T3-T4): Lowry keeps churning out big results. The Irishman has finished top five in his first two Florida starts and struck the ball well at Bay Hill, gaining 7.2 strokes last week at Bay Hill.
3. Wyndham Clark ($9,700, 2nd-MC-T41): Clark looked in top form again last week. The US Open winner from 2023 gained over 4.0 strokes putting and managed a solo second. He’s finished first or second in two of his last four starts.
4. Erik Van Rooyen ($7,300, T25-T2-T8): The South African continued his solid play last week, landing a T25 at Bay Hill. van Rooyen has now finished T25 or better in four of his last five PGA starts.
5. Sahith Theegala ($8,700, T6-T37, 5): Theegala showed real poise in tough conditions last week, landing a T6 in an event where he lost strokes on approach. He’s made five cuts in a row now and has two top 10 finishes on the season.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Stack Scheffler with value
The pricing pivot on DraftKings means that while Scottie Scheffler ($12,800) is now nearly 13K in salary there are also a ton of sub-6K players we can potentially stack with him to create viable lineups. Scheffler’s tee to green game remains immaculate and his putting upside shone through last week making him dangerous to fade. Looking down the salary charts names like Russell Henley ($8,500) and Corey Conners ($8,300) in the 8K range look like decent options to pair with the number one player in the world. Additionally, if you are looking for deeper value, Martin Laird ($5,400) and Nick Taylor ($6,900) are the kind of in-form veterans we often see excel at this shorter setup. This is a volatile week and with the new salary format, taking a few more chances with cheaper players makes a lot of sense.
Tournaments: Spieth has upside to overcome favorites
Spieth ($9,500) is coming off somewhat of a lackluster T30 at the Arnold Palmer. The American had a few missteps off the tee but otherwise gained strokes everywhere else. His around the green game has been excellent this year and his putter has been gaining for him most weeks. Spieth has a T3 and a T6 finish in four starts this year so while he may seem far away after last week, he’s been at the top of leaderboards in 50% of his starts this season (but should remain somewhat lower-owned for DFS). Below Spieth, SungJae Im ($8,400) makes sense as an upside target after he struck the ball well last week. Adam Hadwin ($7,500) didn’t have the greatest start at Bay Hill, but he’s played well over the past six months and has a great record at Sawgrass. Other potential GPP targets this week include Brendon Todd ($6,500), Brandon Wu ($5,600) and Sam Ryder ($5,600).
MY PICK: Will Zalatoris ($9,900)
Zalatoris has the kind of game that should give him a chance around TPC Sawgrass for years to come. The tee-to-green maestro has some of the best mid-to-long approaches in the game and has shown sharpness over his last three starts now which is a great sign considering the long injury layoff he endured in 2023. The American’s last start in 2023 actually came at this event (T73) and he’s now managed top 15 finishes in each of his last three starts.
His results haven’t necessarily been all about his ball-striking either. He’s found a new level of consistency on the greens, gaining over 1.0 strokes putting in three straight events, a development that should help him around Sawgrass where’s never found a ton of success with the putter. Despite the lack of putting upside, Zalatoris has still T21 and T26 finishes at Sawgrass (‘21, ‘22).
At under 10k on DraftKings, he’s a solid core play for PGA DFS tournaments, and even with shorter +2500 outright odds, his recent form makes him an outright target for me on the DraftKings Sportsbook as well.
MY SLEEPER: Alex Noren ($7,200)
This event has produced enough surprise performances by classy veteran players that we should not discount the chances of a player like Alex Noren this week. Names like KJ Choi, Martin Kaymer, and Webb Simpson have all grabbed late career wins at TPC Sawgrass and Noren, while he’s now technically on the wrong side of 40, is still showcasing he has what it takes to compete on these more technical layouts.
The Swede is coming off a T9 at PGA National, another Florida-based venue where he gained 5.7 strokes on approach for the week and led the field in proximity gained from >200 yards. Sawgrass has four par 5s (most of which the players will be able to reach in two) and enough longer par 4s that players will see an above-average number of approaches from longer range.
Noren’s also got the kind of experience we’re looking for in an upside target this week. He’s nearly won in Florida before (top five at PGA National twice) and finished T10 on his debut at Sawgrass back in 2017. While he started the season slowly the 10-event made-cut streak he’s on is the second longest of his career and he’s produced two top-five finishes, and three top-10 finishes, over that span now.
At +850 odds for a top 10, he also makes sense to look at for placing bets this week on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: $2.4M 2024 Golf Premiere Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry] (PGA TOUR)
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
