It’s the last Saturday of the regular season, and yes the ACC and Big East still hate NCAA Tournament units apparently. But we’ve got the best-case scenario for the MWC playing in the Arch Madness Final. The winner is in, and potentially if you love mid-major hoops, the loser is as well.
With Tennessee and Arizona both losing, there might be some room on the No. 1 seed lines as well. But that’s for the teams that are for sure in the Big Dance, and we’re here to talk about those that still have questions about what they’re doing after St. Patrick’s Day.
For reference as to where teams currently stand in the eyes of bracketology experts, we’ll use the latest projections of Joe Lunardi of ESPN and Shelby Mast of BracketWag.com.
Home team in italics
Creighton 69, Villanova 67
Looks like a heartbreaking loss at home, right? Well Villanova was actually down 30-8 in the first half, then came crawling back thanks to some spectacularly mediocre effort by the Bluejays defensively when leading by what appeared to be infinity. But after crawling back to tie it for the first time since 0-0 with just seconds remaining, Creighton’s Trey Alexander broke hearts in South Philly like he was another Blue Jay: Joe Carter.
Lunardi thinks ‘Nova is now heading to Dayton as an 11-seed, and Mast agrees. But 17-14, 10-10 in the Big East, and 4-9 vs. Quad 1 is no way to go through life son. With a loss in the first round at MSG, Kyle Neptune might be fired before the NIT berth the ‘Cats won’t deserve either.
Utah State 87, New Mexico 85
Much like his father, UNM’s Richard Pitino spends so much time on the bubble he should have a boba sponsorship. The Lobos probably could have locked up their first NCAA since 2014 with a win at one of the toughest home courts in all of college basketball, but Downtown Darius Brown broke their hearts at The Spectrum with an ice cold three to ship it.
It’s another brutal beat for the Lobos, who are just 2-7 vs. Quad 1 teams, but 3-1 vs. Quad 2, and still that horrible loss to Air Force at home that is now putting them in Dayton if anywhere at the moment. That’s where both bracketologists have them, but a few wins in Vegas at the MWC Tourney next week might make all the difference.
Indiana State 94, Northern Iowa 72: Drake 72, Bradley 67
We’re combining the two MWC bubble teams, because the lack of mid-major multi-bid leagues this year quite frankly has us wanting to hire John Nash to find both teams a way into this thing.
The best case for the MWC to get a pair of bids is probably for Drake to win the MWC Championship Game tomorrow. They’re the weaker resume (NET: ISU 29, Drake 46; Quad 1 ISU 1-3, Drake 3-1; Quad 2 ISU 4-1, Drake 2-3), and remember the loser adds another Quad 1 loss tomorrow.
Both did what they needed in St. Louis in reaching the Arch Madness final, but it’s going to take some help from the rest of the field it appears. Right now Lunardi has ISU in the field as an AQ 11-seed, but a loss might put any at-large chance in jeopardy. For Drake he’s got them Next Four Out for an at-large, so they’d need to win tomorrow for sure.
Mast also has ISU on the No. 11 line, but Drake as an at-large Dayton team on the No. 12 line. And you can expect plenty of disparity on the debates within the Selection Committee as well.
UConn 74, Providence 60
This was always going to be a tall order, but getting skunked by being down 18 at half and as much as 26 before some garbage-time recovery can’t leave a good impression on the committee. PC is 5-8 vs. Quad 1, but 2-4 vs. Quad 2, and sits at 61 in the NET as of now.
They’ll need at least a couple wins in MSG according to Lunardi, who has them as the first team out as of now. Mast puts the Friars as the third team out presently.
St. John’s 86, Georgetown 78
The Johnnies got a bit wonky on Senior Day, but it was fine as they pulled away late. No movement here as both bracketologists still have Rick Pitino’s troops heading to Dayton, which is no small feat in Year 1. STJ has won five straight, and the NET stands at 37.
Virginia 72, Georgia Tech 57
UVA averages a paltry 60.5 possessions per game, dead last in the country yet again. So we object to their NCAA inclusion because Tony Bennett has bored us to death for a whopping 15 years now. He seems like a mensch of a human being, but we’d rather watch cricket with one eye than his pack line defense go under another ball screen.
However we hope the selection committee doesn’t hold this bias. The Hoos are 2-6 vs. Quad 1, but No. 3 in the ACC standings. The NET is 50, and assuming the ACC’s No. 6 team in Wake Forest wins their opening round game against either Miami or Boston College, the conference quarterfinal between Virginia and Wake might be an NCAA Tournament eliminator.
FAU 92, Memphis 84
The biggest fraud in Bluff City since Colonel Tom Parker, the Tigers had a chance to take one from last year’s Final Four surprise team. Instead they let the Owls shoot 24-44 from 2, 11-28 from 3, and got out-rebounded 41-34. If Nae’Qwan Tomlin didn’t go nuclear for U of M (27 points, 5-6 from 3) it would have gotten out of hand quick in Boca Raton.
Both bracketologists have Memphis as a Next Four Out team, which with their elite talent is almost inconceivable. They probably need to win the AAC Tournament, but there might be a path if they knock off both SMU and Charlotte on the way to losing to South Florida in the final.
But if they didn’t blow a 20-point second-half lead to USF at home already this season, they might not be in this position in the first place.
Oregon 66, Utah 65
An 0-2 weekend in the Beaver State puts Utah on the way out again. This could have been a huge Quad 1 for the Utes to improve the resume heading to Las Vegas, but now they appear to be on the way out.
It would be brutal for the Pac-12 to only have two teams in the NCAA Tournament during the last year of the league’s existence. But that’s what we’re looking at right now, as only Arizona and Washington State are anywhere near contention. Colorado, Oregon and Utah would need to make a very deep run in Las Vegas for any consideration, and the other seven teams would need to cut down the nets to get a bid.
