The Miami Heat (35-26) and Dallas Mavericks (34-28) meet Thursday with both teams trending in opposite directions at the beginning of March. The Heat have won their last two contests and occupy the final automatic playoff spot in the East at the moment, while the Mavericks have lost three in a row and sit in the play-in zone. This is the first meeting between these teams this season.
Tyler Herro, Kevin Love and Josh Richardson are out for the Heat, with Richardson officially being done for the season. Luka Doncic, who is coming off a fourth consecutive 30-point triple-double, is probable. Maxi Kleber is also probable for Dallas.
The Mavericks are 4.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 229.5. Dallas is -192 on the moneyline while Miami is +160.
Heat vs. Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Heat +4.5
Miami is 4-1 without Herro and 5-1 since the All-Star break, with the only loss coming to the defending champions Nuggets. The Heat have covered the spread four times in six games since the break and are 13-7 ATS as the road underdog. The Mavericks have been outmatched in three straight games despite Doncic’s insane production. They are 9-12 ATS as the home favorite on the season.
At some point, either Doncic will stop dropping massive stat lines or the Mavericks will find a way to translate that into a win. I like the Heat, who have had more success since the break, to cover as the underdog in this contest.
Over/Under: Over 229.5
The Heat are 24-37 to the over on the season, making them one of the most under-friendly teams in the league. Miami is 9-22 to the over as the away team this season. Dallas is 31-30-1 to the over on the year but just 15-18 to the over at home. The Mavericks have gone over four times in the seven games since the break, while the Heat are 3-3 on over/unders. Even though Miami can put the clamps on Doncic and Kyrie Irving, I think Dallas still has enough firepower to push this total over 229.5.