The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $1M Spring Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
The Field
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a PGA “signature event” for 2024 that features a limited field of 80 golfers (no cut) with a 20 million prize purse up for grabs (4M to first). 42 of the world’s top 50 players will be in attendance, with 2022 winner Scottie Scheffler (and world number one) leading the field. Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, and Viktor Hovland are all in attendance as well along with last year’s surprise winner Kurt Kitayama.
This will be the first season that this tournament is played as a no-cut event although it used to have reduced fields of 120 players, or so, so the change isn’t that drastic. Winners at the API tend to be elite, as four of the last six winners of this event have all won major championships at some point in their careers. International players have also won this event in five of the past eight seasons.
With no cutline in play the action for DFS will be fast and wild this week as all six players on your roster will get in four rounds, barring a DQ or WD.
The Course
Bay Hill—Orlando, FL.
Par 72, 7,466 yards
Bay Hill has hosted this event since its inception but has undergone major renovations at points during the last decade. The course used to play as a par 70 between 2007 and 2009 but reverted back to a par 72 in 2010 and remains that way today. After 2014, fairways were widened in spots, with some overgrown rough and trees removed, making driving conditions a touch easier for the players on certain holes. New Bermuda greens were also added.
Lately, Bay Hill has been set up to play as one of the toughest on the PGA TOUR, with the rough typically playing to “major championship” caliber and the wind providing extra defense. The venue played as the hardest course on the PGA TOUR in 2020 — even compared to the major championship venues — and yielded just a 74.106 scoring average. In two of the last four seasons, the winning score has failed to exceed 5-under par and in 2023 the winner posted 9-under.
As mentioned above, Bay Hill features Bermuda greens and, as a traditional par 72, also features four par 5s, none of which play longer than 570 yards. As such, these holes will still yield a lot of birdies or better, and most of the past winners here have tended to dominate these holes during the week. With wider fairways, strokes gained off the tee stats don’t tend to matter as much as you would think they would on a longer course. Top finishers at Bay Hill tend to gain far more on approach than any other category, and with plenty of tough approaches into water-protected greens, it’s easy to see why. The 2022 winner Scottie Scheffler, actually lost strokes off the tee but led the field in approach stats and the 2023 winner Kurt Kitayama only gained 0.4 strokes OTT (but gained 7.7 strokes around the green + putting).
What sets Bay Hill apart from some of the other Florida courses is the abundance of longer approaches. Thanks to some doglegs and forced layup holes, players tend to see quite a few longer approach shots (>200 yards or more), so long iron proximity is another stat to focus on outside of the regular strokes gained categories.
The venue has been a lightning rod for major championship-quality players of late, with four of the past six winners at Bay Hill now in possession of a major win. And maybe that stat shouldn’t come as a huge shock. This is a venue that requires a good all-around game, good mental composure, and the ability to hit precision approaches on nearly every hole — just to avoid your ball meeting an untimely watery grave.
While Bay Hill is nowhere near a links venue, the ability to handle tougher, open-like conditions can certainly be seen in the past winner list here with Open champions like Rory McIlroy and Francesco Molinari on the list. Additionally, before his win at Bay Hill, Kitayama’s best finish on the PGA was a 2nd place finish at the Scottish Open, played at the Rennaissance Club, a pure links venue over in Scotland. Players with good recent form and good results on those same sorts of stops can certainly be given extra attention this week.
2024 Weather Outlook: Thursday is likely to be the best day of the event with winds under 10mph and sunny skies expected for most of the day. Friday things start getting spicy as the wind starts strong in the morning (12-15mph) but may die down as the day goes on. It’s too early to tell how Friday will play out but getting players out earlier on a softer course on Thursday A.M. may prove to be slightly beneficial from a stacking perspective in DFS. Saturday has gusts into the 20mph range and winds building most of the day so early starters may be able to make up some ground on the leaders this week. Sunday is more subdued (as of writing) although winds are still expected to be in the 10-12mph range.
Last Five Winners
2023 — Kurt Kitayama -9 (over Rory McIlroy and Harris English -8)
2022 — Scottie Scheffler -5 (over three different players -4)
2021 — Bryson DeChambeau -11 (over Lee Westwood -10)
2020 — Tyrrell Hatton -4 (over Marc Leishman -3)
2019 — Francesco Molinari -12 (over Matthew Fitzpatrick -10)
Winning Trends
- Eight of the past nine winners of this event had recorded a T17 or better finish at Bay Hill in a previous season before winning (except Kitayama ‘23).
- Eleven of the past 13 winners of this event had all played the API at Bay Hill the year prior and made the cut (exception: Scheffler 2022, Kitayama 2023).
- Five of the past eight winners have been international players.
Winners Statistics
2023 Winner: Kurt Kitayama (9-under par)
2023 lead-in form (MC-T23-T29-MC-T73)
SG: OTT—+0.4
SG: APP—+3.3
SG: TTG—+5.8
SG: ATG—+2.1
SG: PUTT—+5.6
- Winners and top finishers at Bay Hill gain more strokes on approach than any other category — for proximity focusing on >200-yard shots is key as well.
- 2022 winner Scottie Scheffler gained the most strokes on Approach of any of the past seven winners but also had a great week on the greens.
- 2023 winner gained 3.3 strokes on approach but was better than Scheffler ATG (+2.1 strokes).
- Despite Bay Hill being long and holding four par 5s, we can’t describe it as a bombers course, as many of the longer holes still require players to place the ball off the tee and stress long iron approaches (Scheffler and Kitayama gained less than 1.0 strokes OTT).
- Shorter hitters like Tyrrell Hatton and Francesco Molinari have both found wins at this venue recently, and in 2022 Chris Kirk, Hatton, and Billy Horschel all finished inside the top five.
- Approaches from >200 yards are the most common of any at this venue; GIR percentages are quite a bit lower compared to the PGA TOUR average; and driving accuracy tends to be slightly higher than average.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Jason Day +3500 and $8,200
Comparables:
Min Woo Lee +4000 and $6,600
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Rory McIlroy ($10,600; best finishes: win-2018, T2-2023): There’s something about Bay Hill that suits Rory’s eye, as the Northern Irishman comes into this year’s version flashing finishes of T2, T5, and a victory at this venue over the past six seasons. He’s yet to miss the cut at Bay Hill over his last eight starts and finished T13 or better at Bay Hill the last six years.
2. Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,600; best finishes: 2nd-2019, T9-2020, and 2022): Fitzpatrick has been close to grabbing a win multiple times at this venue. The Englishman is a terrific Bermuda putter and has been extremely comfortable playing around this more precision-based venue.
3. Tommy Fleetwood ($8,800; best finishes: T3-2019, T10-2017 + 2021): Fleetwood has played this venue in each of the last seven seasons and posted top-10 finishes in three of those starts. He’s excelled the most when playing down in Florida and also has top-five finishes at the PLAYERS and Honda Classic. He finished T10 at Riviera in his last start and brings solid recent form to the table as well.
4. Sungjae Im ($8,000; best finishes: T3-2020 + 2019): Im has been a beast on the Florida swing for much of his career. He picked up a win at another tough Florida venue in PGA National back in 2020 and has finished top-five at Bay Hill twice already in five career starts. He’s in a slump but if any course can bring him out of it, it’s Bay Hill, which has been one of his best tracks on the circuit.
5. Chris Kirk ($7,800; best finishes: T5-2022 + T8-2021): Kirk ranks fifth in strokes gained total stats over the last six seasons at Bay Hill, posting top-10 finishes at this event in two of the past three seasons. His last two wins have come on Bermuda greens and he won in Florida just last year as well (PGA National).
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Value with Fitzpatrick and Day
While taking one of Scheffler or McIlroy to begin this week seems prudent, building out lineups with mid-tier values like Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,600) and Jason Day ($8,200) looks like a solid second step in “the process”. Fitzpatrick remains a top 10 player in the OWGR who played well for long stretches last week and has had great success at this venue and in Florida, in general. Day is a former winner of this event has looked close to regaining some of the magic around the greens that allowed him to ascend to number one in the OWGR back in 2016. He’s also coming off back-to-back top-10 results and looks as healthy as he’s been for quite some time. Other potential names to target for this format include Min Woo Lee ($6,600) and Chris Kirk ($7,800)
Tournaments: Spieth, a solid upside target
It’s hard to say how popular Jordan Spieth ($9,400) will be in DFS this week. He’s not necessarily overpriced for a player who has finished T4 at this event in each of the past two seasons but the field is strong and some may be put off by his DQ at Riviera, and his slow start to the year with his approaches. What has looked good for Spieth thus far is his short game which has gained him strokes in six straight starts and is a point of confidence for him right now. If his ball-striking does improve, he’ll be in great shape to potentially chase his first win of 2024, and looks like a good upper-tier tournament play for DFS. Other potential targets for this format include Sahith Theegala ($8,100), Si Woo Kim ($7,700), Adam Scott ($7,500), Stephan Jaeger ($7,200) and Adam Hadwin ($6,800 – see below).
Recent Form
1. Sam Burns ($9,300, T10 – 3rd – T10) – Burns grabbed a T10 his last time out at Riviera, it was his fifth top-10 finish in a row. The American has gained over 1.0 strokes putting each of his starts this year.
2. Scottie Scheffler ($11,300, T10 – T3 – T6) – Scheffler recorded his third top 10 in a row at the Genesis. His putter continues to hold him back, but his flawless tee-to-green game keeps him hanging around the lead most weeks.
3. Xander Schauffele ($9,800, T4 – T54) – Schauffele failed to break through at Riviera and has now gone nearly two years without a PGA win. He’s recorded three top-10 finishes in four starts to begin 2024.
4. Jake Knapp ($7,600, T4 – win) – Knapp has been killing the ball of late. Bay Hill is tricky but he is on another level right now and likely worth playing until we some slide in his ball-striking stats.
5. Min Woo Lee ($6,600, T2 – T71 – T43) – Lee has made four cuts in a row now and comes into this week off a strong T2 finish at PGA National where he gained over 6.0 strokes ball-striking.
MY PICK: Adam Scott ($7,500)
When you look at Adam Scott’s overall career record, it’s a little shocking that he hasn’t won here before. He has three career wins in the state of Florida (Sawgrass, PGA National, and Trump National) and has generally been a terrific links and Open Championship player coming close to winning that major numerous times.
He was in contention to win this event back in 2014 (T3) but hasn’t come in with great form over the past few seasons. This year could be different. He’s already made three starts on the PGA and, unlike past years (when he’s tended to build form slowly), he’s come out of the gates hot, posting three top-20 finishes. He’s gained strokes OTT and on approach in all of those starts as well and gained +6.8 strokes on approach at TPC Scottsdale — a venue that carries some good correlation and recent cross-winner appeal with Bay Hill (Scheffler 2022-2023). Scott’s also turned into a much savior putter as he’s aged and ranks out 7th in Bermuda putting splits over the last 24 rounds — he also gained 6.5 strokes on the greens alone at Bay Hill back in 2022.
With his form bubbling and a very fair $7,500 price tag, he makes for a nice mid-tier value to build around in DFS and a great outright bet at +5000 or better on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
MY SLEEPER: Adam Hadwin ($6,800)
Hadwin looks like a prime candidate to make noise this week in a deeper field. The Canadian is coming off a T4 at Riviera which marked his third top-six finish over his last seven starts. While his approach game has yet to hit full stride Hadwin was extremely solid tee to green in his last start, gaining 4.2 strokes around the green + putting combined. A winner in Florida back in 2017, his putter has been a solid weapon for him over the past six months or so and he has positive splits which have him ranked 10th in SG: Putting on Bermuda over the last 24 rounds.
At home in this state and on this surface, Hadwin’s a player who has been close to picking up win number two recently. The venue this week is longer but has also favored more accurate hitters of late whose game is carried by precision and timely putting on these faster greens. Hadwin fits that mold well and his T6 at this venue back in 2017 certainly hints that if he brings the form we saw from him at Riviera he’ll have a shot to compete for a win again.
At $6,800, he makes plenty of sense as a value target in DFS and has some big outright odds at +9000 on DraftKings Sportsbook, which makes him a reasonable longshot bet as well.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $1M Spring Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
