As we approach the final week of the 2023-24 college basketball regular season, the NCAA Tournament bracket looms large for every team. While some, like UConn and Purdue, have effectively locked in a spot come March, others are right on the bubble. When every game matters, the pressure is on. We take a look at how Saturday’s games affected bubble teams’ chances to go dancing in a few weeks
For reference where teams currently stand in the eyes of bracketology experts, we’ll use the latest brackets of Dominic Lese of Bracketometry.com and Joe Lunardi of ESPN.
Home team in italics
Gonzaga 70, Saint Mary’s 57
Saint Mary’s had already wrapped up the West Coast Conference regular season championship, but Gonzaga still managed to pick up a double-digit road victory against them on Saturday. The Zags really rounded into form with an eight-game win streak to close the regular season and Saturday’s triumph marked just their third Quad 1 win of the year.
Bracket experts had Gonzaga as one of the last teams in the NCAA Tournament field prior to Saturday and after that win, I’d consider them safe. I’d just recommend for the Bulldogs to not get tripped up in the WCC Tournament semifinals.
Virginia Tech 87, Wake Forest 76
Wake Forest’s victory over Duke last weekend has effectively been nullified as it has now lost two straight games. The Demon Deacons squandered a 15-point lead in Saturday’s loss to the Hokies and they really needed the win, as it would’ve counted as a Quad 1 victory.
The Deacs are now on the wrong side of the bubble in the eyes of bracket experts with games against Georgia Tech and Clemson remaining on their regular season schedule. At this point, the ACC Tournament will most likely be their only path to the NCAA’s.
Duke 73, Virginia 48
Duke clocked Virginia at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday, pushing the Cavaliers further down the ladder. While this wasn’t a bad loss for the Hoos in a vacuum, it was a continuation of their struggles for the past three weeks as Tony Bennett’s club has now lost four of their last six games. The Hoos have struggled against the top teams on their schedule as they are now a combined 7-9 in Quad 1/2 games.
The only game remaining on UVA’s regular season slate is a home showdown against Georgia Tech and a win there won’t be nearly enough to impress the NCAA Tournament selection committee. It is going to need to turn some heads with a deep run in the ACC tourney.
Villanova 71, Providence 60
The bubble game of the day saw Villanova hit the road and topple Providence by double-digits. The back end of Nova’s Big East schedule has been manageable and it has taken advantage with a 6-2 record in its last eight games. The Wildcats are trending towards being one of the last teams in the field, but they still have plenty of work to do with Seton Hall and Creighton left on the schedule.
As for Providence, it effectively switched places with Villanova on the bubble hierarchy with the loss. The Friars do have five Quad 1 wins in their back pocket, but they are a quintessential bubble team with 50’s rankings in both NET and KenPom. Next Saturday’s game against UConn will prove critical to them.
Illinois 91, Wisconsin 83
I wanted to talk about Wisconsin because quite frankly, they have stunk to high heavens for the past month and they shouldn’t be let off the hook. A team that at one point was ahead of Purdue in the Big Ten standings has now lost seven of its last nine games, with Rutgers and the Boilermakers still left on the schedule. The Badgers are fine for now in the eyes of bracket experts, but this is something worth monitoring if they continue to plummet.
Arizona 103, Oregon 83
Oregon just cannot establish any kind of momentum in an incredibly weak Pac-12 and it got outclassed by the league’s top team on Saturday. The Ducks entered Saturday ranked 65th in NET and with just two Quad 1 wins, they would not be in the NCAA Tournament field if Selection Sunday was today.
The Ducks still have a few opportunities to pick up some quality victories with both Colorado and Utah coming to Eugene next week, but at this point, it’s Pac-12 Tournament title or bust.
Ole Miss 84, Missouri 78
Hey, congrats Ole Miss, you narrowly avoided becoming the first SEC team to lose to Mizzou this season! You cleared that hurdle and now have to clear the hurdles of Georgia and Texas A&M next week. You’re on the right track for making it into the big dance.
South Florida 76, Charlotte 61
USF officially clinched the outright AAC regular season title with a win over Charlotte on Saturday, picking up a Quad 2 road victory in the process. The Bulls remain an interesting case heading into tournament season as on one hand, they are ranked in the AP Top 25 and have been one of the hottest teams in the entire country with a 14-game win streak. On the other hand, their overall schedule has been weak and early-season losses to Central Michigan and Maine tarnishes their resume.
Can USF earn an at-large bid for the big dance if they don’t win the AAC Tournament? That’s tough to answer and it will be even tougher if it extends its streak to 16 with wins over Tulane and Tulsa next week.
Richmond 79, VCU 76
Another possible bid stealer is Richmond, who took down Capital City rival VCU on Saturday. The Spiders are on the precipice of its very first A-10 regular season title and have been excellent in conference play with quality wins over Dayton and Loyola Chicago.
Right now, Richmond is penciled in as the A-10’s automatic qualifier with Dayton getting at at-large bid. But similar to USF, the Spiders’ inclusion into the NCAA Tournament will be a discussion point regardless if they win their conference tourney or not.
Florida Atlantic 79, Tulane 73
FAU has moseyed on down into “last four byes” territory with recent losses to USF and Memphis in the AAC. However, the Owls did what it had to do when holding off Tulane on Saturday. Last year’s Final Four Cinderella is safe to make it into the big dance for now, but it needs to eliminate any doubt with North Texas and a rematch against Memphis on the horizon.