The No. 1 Houston Cougars take on the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday evening at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2. The Cougars are looking to add to their already sterling resume en route to a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Sooners are fighting to get in on the bubble in a the best conference in basketball. Here we’re going to go over the matchup and give our best bet for the game.
What more can we say about the 25-3 Cougars? They’re No. 1 overall in the country and the top team on KenPom thanks to their defense, which is also No. 1 in the country. Houston is on a six-game heater since dropping a game on the road to Kansas on Feb. 3. So it’s been almost a month of basketball since the Cougars lost. There are few blemishes on Houston’s resume going into March Madness and the Cougars should be able to finish Big 12 play out by extending the streak to nine games.
The Cougars boast the top back court in college basketball with L.J. Cryer and Jamal Shead, who combine to average around 28 points per game. Perimeter defense is so important in college basketball and in the tournament, and the Cougars do it better than any team. That will be tough for a team like Oklahoma, which struggles on offense at times.
Speaking of the Sooners, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Oklahoma in the field for the NCAA Tournament as an 8-seed going into Saturday. That can change pretty quickly given the complexion of college basketball and the Big 12. The Sooners can almost guarantee they’ll be in the tourney with a win over Houston on Saturday evening. OU enters this matchup in worse shape than Houston of course. The Sooners have dropped three of four games, the lone win in OT against Oklahoma State.
If Oklahoma drops this game to Houston, the Sooners will need wins in their final two games vs Cincy and Texas to have a good shot at getting in once the Big 12 Tournament begins. More losses could mean the Sooners are on the outside looking in. OU is also anchored by its defense, one of the better teams at defending the 3-point line. That will pose an interesting matchup against the Cougars, who don’t shoot the ball great from outside.
Houston vs. Oklahoma odds from DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: Houston -6
Total: 130.5
Moneyline: Houston -265, Oklahoma +215
Looking at these lines, you’d think the top team in the country would be favored by more against a non-ranked opponent, even on the road. Nope, that’s the Big 12 this season. Both teams are very good defensively, a big reason the total is so low. KenPom projects that the total would be just under that line. It’s a tough call given how Houston operates. If the Cougars are shut down by OU’s defensive play, we should see a close game. If it’s close, there’s a chance we get things to slow down even more toward the end, which could result in some backdoor tomfoolery in the form of free throws. So I’d recommend going the in-game route if you’re looking at the total.
As for the spread, this is a big spot for Porter Moser’s group. Again, a win and you’re in situation against Houston. Six of the Sooners’ nine losses this season have come on the road, so they’re definitely more comfortable in this spot at home. Houston’s three losses this season have all come on the road. Both teams play at a very slow pace. Neither team is very good from beyond the arc. Most of the public is on the Houston spread, the over, and the ML.
We’re going to go against the grain and say the Sooners cover at home in the biggest game of their season to date. Houston could lose a game or two and still secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars are looking ahead to the Big 12 tourney and NCAAs, allowing Oklahoma to cover the spread.
