The New Mexico Lobos (21-7, 9-6 MWC) take on the Boise State Broncos (20-8, 11-4) in a big Mountain West Conference matchup on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET from ExtraMile Arena in Boise, Idaho. Both teams are fighting to get into the field for the NCAA Tournament as the end of the regular season approaches. Here we’re going to go over the matchup and give our best bet via odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s start with the Lobos, who have been trading wins and losses lately. New Mexico has alternated wins and losses since a win over Nevada on Jan. 28. This stretch has included losses to Boise State, San Diego State, UNLV and Air Force. But also wins over Nevada (again) and Colorado State. New Mexico is coming off a very bad loss to Air Force at home by one point. The Lobos are very firmly on the bubble and this game could decide which of these teams gets into the NCAA Tournament.
Earlier in the season, New Mexico faltered down the stretch in a 86-78 loss to the Broncos at home. Donovan Dent finished with 31 points but was outplayed by Max Rice, who dropped 35 for the Broncos. The Lobos rank highly on KenPom at 34th overall and are one of the fastest-paced teams in the country. They’re led by great guard play from Dent, Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr.
The Broncos are also a bubble team but are in better position than New Mexico entering this matchup. Boise State is a 7-seed per Lunardi’s Bracketology entering Saturday. The Broncos are on a four-game winning streak, though it’s against a bunch of bad teams (Fresno State, San Jose State, Wyoming and Air Force). The Broncos are 5-2 at home in conference play this season.
Boise State ranks 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom and is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Broncos also do a great job defending the three-point line, which should come in handy against the guard play from New Mexico. It will be interesting to see the Lobos’ fast-paced offense take on the Broncos’ defense again.
New Mexico vs. Boise State odds from DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: Boise State -3.5
Total: 154
Moneyline: Boise State -166, New Mexico +140
We went over what happened last time these two teams played. It was close till the end of the game when the Broncos pulled away and won by eight points. The spread has moved from 3.0 to 3.5 since we started writing this piece. Most of the public betting is on Boise State with bets and money coming in more on the Broncos to cover the spread.
The over/under splits are very interesting as well. Most of the handle is on the over while the majority of the bets are on the under. The last time these two teams played, the total was 164. KenPom projects the game to finish at 153, so just under. If the game is close, there’s a chance we see overtime. The over feels like the stronger player; always follow the money.
More of the public is backing the Broncos on the ML so we’ll follow that bet. Boise State has been good at home and New Mexico has been pretty inconsistent. If the Broncos can do a good job defending the three-point line again while shutting down most of the Lobos offense, it should mean another W.
