We’re into the second-to-last weekend of the college basketball regular season. The bubble remains a mystery as we approach conference tournament time in mid-March. Selection Sunday will take place on St. Patrick’s Day on March 17. Teams are running out of time to get themselves off the bubble and firmly into the field for the NCAA Tournament.
This weekend is big for plenty of bubble teams, so we’re going to go conference-by-conference and look at which teams are on the bubble, and what they need to do. Plus, notable schedules for Saturday games.
2024 March Madness: Bubble watch, March 2
ACC
In: UNC, Duke, Clemson
Bubble teams: Wake Forest, Virginia, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech
Schedule
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech, 5:30 p.m. ET
UVA @ No. 10 Duke, 6 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh @ Boston College, 6 p.m. ET
The Demon Deacons are closer to in than out on the bubble. Wake ranks 22nd on KenPom and 27th in NET. That would certainly seem like they’re firmly in the field for the NCAA Tournament. But a loss to Notre Dame this week should be some cause for concern. Still, Wake has a big matchup vs. fellow bubble team Virginia Tech. The Deacons beat up on the Hokies earlier in the season in a 23-point home victory. Wake Forest also has to take on Clemson the final game of the regular season, which could have some NCAA Tournament implications.
UVA has been faltering down the stretch with losses to UNC, Va. Tech and Pitt in the past five games. Virginia is rapidly plunging down the NET Rankings at 47th overall. The Hoos also rank just on the fringe of the tournament field on KenPom at 64th. This is a pretty big spot for UVA given their final game of the regular season is vs. Georgia Tech, then the ACC Tournament. So a loss to Duke, win over Ga. Tech, and loss in the first round of the conference tournament could help other teams leapfrog the Cavaliers on the bubble.
A very weak out of conference schedule could end up hurting the Panthers. But Pitt also has an easy schedule to finish the regular season (BC, vs. FSU, vs. NC State). If the Panthers take care of business in the final three contests, that could mean they sneak in. It would be hard to ignore a 21-win Pitt team that will likely finish inside the top-50 in KenPom and NET. Even if the Panthers falter down the stretch, a win or two in the ACC Tournament would go a long way.
Big 12
In: Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor, BYU
Bubble teams: Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma, Texas, Cincinnati
Schedule
Oklahoma State @ Texas, 2 p.m. ET
Texas Tech @ WVU, 6 p.m. ET
Kansas State @ Cincinnati, 7 p.m. ET
No. 1 Houston @ Oklahoma, 8 p.m. ET
TCU @ BYU, 9 p.m. ET
The Big 12 is expected to get the most bids of any major conference into the NCAA Tournament this season. You can pretty easily make a strong case for two thirds of the conference to be playing come March Madness. But most of those teams remain on the bubble. The good thing is, because of the strength of the conference, bubble teams in the Big 12 will have games that may hold more weight with the selection committee.
Let’s start with Texas, the No. 18 team in the preseason poll, now out of the top 25. But KenPom loves the Longhorns; they rank 26th with one of the better strengths of schedule in the nation. Texas wraps up the regular season at home vs. OK State, on the road vs. Baylor and at home in the Red River Rivalry. Wins over the Cowboys and Sooners should help Texas get in regardless of Big 12 tournament results (though winning a game or two there wouldn’t hurt). A win over the Bears on Monday would probably mean Texas is a lock for the tourney.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi updated his Bracketology on March 1 and had Texas Tech as a 7-seed into the tourney while TCU is a 9-seed and Kansas State is among one of the Next Four Out. K-State vs. Cincy could eliminate whichever team loses that matchup from the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats rank low on KenPom (71st) and have to at least split Kansas and Iowa State to wrap the season, not an easy task. Three straight losses and Kansas State is likely cooked.
TCU vs. BYU is relatively important but not as much as the other Big 12 matchups on Saturday. BYU is very firmly in the field projected as a 5-seed. TCU has a soft schedule past this weekend with games vs. last-place WVU and UCF. But a slip up vs. the Mountaineers or Knights could mean the Horned Frogs are fighting in the Big 12 tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament.
The Sooners are projected to be an 8-seed by ESPN. Oklahoma won’t get knocked for losing to Houston at home as long as its a reasonable score. OU would then need to take care of business vs. Cincy and Texas to wrap up the season. The Sooners defeated the Bearcats earlier in the season but got blown out at home vs. the Longhorns. Expect all these matchups to be slugfests. These games are basically playoff-caliber.
Big Ten
In: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois
Bubble teams: Michigan State, Northwestern, Nebraska, Iowa
Schedule
No. 13 Illinois @ Wisconsin, 1 p.m. ET
Iowa @ Northwestern, 5:30 p.m. ET
Michigan State @ No. 2 Purdue, 8 p.m. ET
As of now on ESPN, the Big Ten is projected to get five bids into the tourney — Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern and Michigan State. Northwestern and Mich State are 8 and 9 seeds, respectively. Nebraska and Iowa have work to do to get into consideration. Neither team is technically “on the bubble” according to Lunardi.
Illinois and Wisconsin are both pretty much locks for the tournament field. But going up against each other could decide seeding — both in the Big Ten and NCAA tourneys. A win would help the Illini clinch second place in the Big Ten standings behind Purdue, a stronger position in the conference tournament.
Iowa-Northwestern is the game to watch. The Hawkeyes sit at 50th in KenPom and unlike in football, are one of the best offensive teams in the country. A win over Northwestern and Illinois to finish the season could jump Iowa into the field. The Wildcats have marquee wins over Purdue and Illinois. But also have bad losses to Chicago State and Rutgers. Northwestern needs at least two of three wins to finish the season and a decent showing in the Big Ten tourney to assure they get in. Next Wednesday’s game vs. Michigan State will be big for the bubble.
SEC
In: Kentucky, Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama, South Carolina
Bubble teams: Florida, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Miss
Schedule
No. 24 Florida @ No. 18 South Carolina, 12 p.m. ET
Mississippi State @ No. 11 Auburn, 4 p.m. ET
Texas A&M @ Georgia, 6 p.m. ET
Mississippi @ Missouri, 8:30 p.m. ET
A&M is on life support. The Aggies have dropped five games in a row (three to ranked opponents, two of which were on the road. Texas A&M would need a lot of help to get in. The Aggies are among the Next Four Out for Lunardi in his latest update. A&M essentially needs to win out over UGA, and both Miss schools next week to stay alive. Even then, it may be tough to make a case for a possibly 14-15 loss A&M team to be in.
The Gators should be in as a top-25 team right now, and Lunardi has Florida as a 7-seed. We’ll consider that closer to the bubble than a lock. The Gators have some decent non-conference wins over Florida State and Pitt. Plus, Florida doesn’t have any egregious losses this season. So as long as the Gators beat Vandy the last game of the season and win a game in the SEC Tournament, they should get in.
The Gamecocks are in very good shape to get in and we have them as in, but we’ll talk a bit about the final stretch. South Carolina has key wins over Tennessee and Kentucky, beating the Vols on the road. But the Gamecocks may not be entirely in the clear given their schedule. Their final two games are against Tennessee and Miss State. A three-game losing streak going into the SEC tourney followed by an early exit could put South Carolina on the bubble. Still, the Gamecocks should get in regardless of a complete meltdown.
KenPom loves the Bulldogs, ranking them 27th overall. Miss State has two very bad non-conference losses to Georgia Tech and Southern. But also have wins over Tennessee and Auburn. The Bulldogs are also one of the better defensive teams in the country. But they are another team with a tough three-game slate to wrap the season (Auburn, A&M, SC). Lunardi has the Bulldogs as an 8-seed in the tourney right now. So a slip up could mean Mississippi State lands in the play-in or drops to a 9 or 10 seed.
The Rebels didn’t drop a game until January when conference play started. But Mississippi hasn’t really done much since early in the season. Their marquee win is against Florida at home. Other than that, the Rebels have lost to most of the conference, including six of the past seven games. Miss does have an easy schedule to end the season (Mizzou, UGA, A&M). Three straight wins, another in the SEC tourney, and some help could boost the Rebels into the play-in. Lunardi has the Rebels in the Next Four Out group.
Big East
In: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
Bubble teams: Seton Hall, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova, Butler
Schedule
Villanova @ Providence, noon ET
Butler @ DePaul, noon ET
Seton Hall, St. John’s and Butler aren’t in action on Saturday. The Pirates take on the Huskies on Sunday afternoon. Most of the Big East is purely living on the bubble. The Huskies, Bluejays and Golden Eagles are all locks, though. Lunardi believes Providence and the Hall will be in the play-in games as 11-seeds. Nova and St. John’s are out, per Lunardi, but right there.
The Wildcats vs. Friars matchup could decide which of those teams keeps their tourney chances alive. Of course, a run in the Big East tournament is also viable. Villanova has one of the tougher schedules in the country and a top defense. The Wildcats have also won five of the past seven games and wrap the season vs. Seton Hall and Creighton. Winning two of those three final games should put Nova in good position to make the field. KenPom also loves the Wildcats, ranked just inside the top 30.
Providence will need more help to get in it seems. The Friars do have signature wins over Creighton and Marquette, plus a non-conference win over Wisconsin. This game is obviously big. Providence plays Georgetown Tuesday but wraps the regular season vs. UConn. A loss to Villanova could mean the Wildcats jump into the field and Providence is out until we see what happens to end the season and in the Big East tourney.
Butler is on a five-game losing streak that has hurt their chances of making the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs should win their final two games vs. DePaul and Xavier. If that happens, it’s a matter of winning at least two rounds in the Big East Tournament, which could be a tall order. Butler’s key wins are against Creighton and Marquette, but that’s similar to the Friars, who have a better resume.
Mountain West
In: San Diego State
Bubble teams: Nevada, Utah State, Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico
Schedule
Wyoming @ Colorado State, 4 p.m. ET
New Mexico @ Boise State, 8 p.m. ET
The most amazing thing on what has been one of the best conferences in the country is there’s a strong chance more than half the league will be in the NCAA Tournament. And no non-P6 conference has ever had that happen.
San Diego State with a NET of 18 and coming off a Final Four is in, but the second-best team in that statistic in New Mexico (NET 25) might be the team the most on the bubble due to their shocking home loss to Air Force last week. Right now Lunardi has them in Dayton.
Boise State (NET 26) is 5-4 in Quad 1, but their 2-3 record against Quad 2 might be their bigger seeding issue in front of the committee. They are a 7 seed currently according to Lunardi. Colorado State (NET 28) has one of the best wins in the league with their 21-point blowout of Creighton, and that makes their dramatic loss at home to Nevada this week more palatable.
Utah State has only one loss outside of Quad 1 this year, and their 12-4 record in the league has them in first place in the MWC. Their 24-5 overall record comes with a best non-league win at Bradley, but without any mistakes it seems to be more than plenty. While they’re at a 7 seed from Lunardi presently, that could get as low as a 5 seed if they can do the double by winning the MWC Tournament.
Nevada has been up and down all season, but at 24-6 (11-5 MWC) they are the last team in the league projected to avoid Dayton as of now with a 10 seed. Grant Osobor is one of the best players in the league, but it’s hard to find a way to leave Steve Alford’s team out of the Big Dance if they can hang on against Boise State and UNLV to close the season.
