As the end of the 2023-24 regular season approaches, there are plenty of teams resting on or near the bubble whose performances over the next few weeks will make or break their shot at the Big Dance.
If your team is on the bubble and you’re hoping to knock out a few other contenders to make room for your team, here are some bubble teams to root against in the coming weeks.
Major conference teams to root against on the bubble
Villanova – 16-12, 9-8 Big East (38 NET, 31 KenPom)
Quad 1: 3-8
Quad 2: 6-1
Quad 3: 2-3
Quad 4: 5-0
Villanova faces Providence and Seton Hall on the road before hosting Creighton at home. Both Providence and Seton Hall are on this list, so you effectively are hoping that one or two of the three will perform poorly enough in the coming weeks to be eliminated and bump down the number of Big East at-large bids.
Texas – 18-10, 7-8 Big XII (40 NET, 28 KenPom)
Quad 1: 5-7
Quad 2: 2-2
Quad 3: 2-1
Quad 4: 9-0
The Big XII will get plenty of at-large bids this season — likely the most of any conference — but there is no specific quota to fill. Texas sits right on the bubble, and if they drop a few games in their coming schedule against teams like Baylor and both Oklahoma’s, we could see the Longhorns drop from contention entirely.
Seton Hall – 18-9, 11-5 Big East (61 NET, 55 KenPom)
Quad 1: 5-5
Quad 2: 3-2
Quad 3: 2-2
Quad 4: 8-0
As mentioned before, this is a grudge match in the Big East for an undetermined number of spots. Seton Hall hosts Villanova, but they visit Creighton and UConn on the road to wrap up the season.
Providence – 18-9, 9-7 Big East (55 NET, 53 KenPom)
Quad 1: 5-6
Quad 2: 3-3
Quad 3: 0-0
Quad 4: 10-0
The Friars face Marquette and UConn in the weeks ahead — both are opportunities to push themselves out of the bubble and into legitimate contention, but two bad losses could sink them further from a potential berth.
And these are the mid-major teams you’ll want to win their conference tournament if you’re rooting for a team on the bubble. These teams have done well enough to earn an at-large bid if they don’t win their conference tournament, so if you’re rooting for a bubble team, you want these teams to qualify for an automatic bid rather than taking one of the few coveted at-large bids.
Potential at-large teams from mid-major conferences
Gonzaga – 21-6, 12-2 WCC (21 NET, 20 KenPom)
Quad 1: 1-5
Quad 2: 2-1
Quad 3: 7-0
Quad 4: 11-0
Gonzaga’s only legitimate contender in their conference is Saint Mary’s, and both of them will likely earn a berth to March Madness this year.
South Florida – 21-5, 14-1 AAC (84 NET, 93 KenPom)
Quad 1: 0-0
Quad 2: 5-3
Quad 3: 6-0
Quad 4: 10-2
South Florida has dominated in conference play, but if they don’t win the AAC title, both the Bulls and the AAC winner will likely earn a spot in the tournament. A USF (or FAU) win effectively eliminates the possibility of the AAC getting more than two bids (one auto, one at-large) come tournament time.
Indiana State – 23-5, 15-3 MVC (33 NET, 47 KenPom)
Quad 1: 1-3
Quad 2: 4-1
Quad 3: 7-0
Quad 4: 11-1
Indiana State and Drake are both on this list, and it doesn’t completely matter which one wins, as both will likely earn a berth to the tournament. However, if a third team that is not one of these two options wins, the Missouri Valley Conference will take up two at-large bids as well as an automatic bid.
Drake – 22-6, 14-4 MVC (46 NET, 50 KenPom)
Quad 1: 2-1
Quad 2: 3-3
Quad 3: 9-2
Quad 4: 8-0
See above.