When you think of NFL Draft analysis, you think of Mel Kiper Jr. and probably his hair. Kiper has been at ESPN doing draft coverage since 1984. He’s not always right, but he sure can talk. And much of the countries understanding of the first couple rounds of the draft will be based on how he presents the draft to viewers.
This is Kiper’s second mock of the year, so a lot will move these players around over the next three months.
Quarterbacks?
Kiper hasn’t changed his views much on quarterbacks for his second mock of the season, but he has moved Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy to pick No. 12 overall to the Denver Broncos. In his first mock he had McCarthy going to the Seattle Seahawks at pick No. 16.
The idea of the Broncos trading for another quarterback after likely letting Russell Wilson go, isn’t going to work out well as the team will take a huge salary cap hit due to Wilson’s huge contract in Kiper’s estimation.
As far as the Top 3 picks and Top 3 quarterbacks, Kiper still has them going Caleb Williams to Chicago, Jayden Daniels to Washington and Drake Maye to New England.
Wide receivers
While reports have been coming out that LSU’s Malik Nabers is ahead of Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. on some draft boards, Kiper has Nabers falling to the third wide receiver pick behind Harrison and Rome Odunze. Nabers ends up going No. 9 overall to the Bears, who of course also grabbed Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick. If Nabers does fall to them, they’d have D.J. Moore, Nabers and Williams for the Bears passing offense in 2024.
Harrison Jr. continues to go to the Arizona Cardinals to pair up with Kyler Murray, while Odunze heads to the New York Giants at pick No. 6. That Giants pick is truly a tough one to pin down, as the team needs a new quarterback, but also need offensive line and wide receiver help. Both are deep positions in this draft, so unless they find a way to move up for a quarterback, I’d expect them to go WR like Kiper has here and wait on an interior offensive lineman.
Kiper also has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grabbing a wideout with their 26th overall pick, with Florida State WR Keon Coleman. With Mike Evans likely on his way out this season, a replacement is needed at the position.
The Bills will look to replace WR Gabe Davis and give Josh Allen an upgrade at wide receiver. Kiper has the other LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. headed to Buffalo. Thomas, at 6’4”, has great hands and is a touchdown savant.
The Chiefs have the last pick in the first round, which is where Kiper has Texas receiver Xavier Worthy headed. Kansas City needs another playmaker at receiver and Worthy could be that guy.
Final thoughts
It will be interesting to see how the wide receivers test at the combine, which could inch some players around on big boards. We are going to see a wide variety of draft grades at the position over the next two months and then we’ll find out how the teams actually graded them. Mistakes will be made, but all reports have this group as deep, with plenty of strong receivers ready to go in the second round as well as the first.
Where J.J. McCarthy ends up going is anybody’s guess at this point, but he’s getting enough hype to keep him in the upper-half of mock drafts. His combine will likely move the needle in the the public’s eyes this weekend, but it’s tough to know how teams truly feel about him at the moment.