Selection Sunday for the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is right around the corner and prepare to be bombarded with resume talk over the next few weeks. The conference tournament champions of all 32 Division I leagues will receive an automatic bid to the big dance, leaving the selection committee to figure out who will receive the 36 at large bids.
Factors like record, strength of schedule, and NET rankings are used to determine who fills these at-large slots, and usually schools from the “Power Six” conferences take up a good chunk of them. That makes it more difficult for aspirational mid-major programs to get in, as most of them have to outright win their league tournament to participate in March Madness.
That brings us to the curious case of the South Florida Bulls, who have arguably been the biggest surprise of the entire sport this season. Under first-year head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim, USF is currently on a 13-game win streak and have already claimed a share of the American Athletic Conference regular season title. This week the Bulls were ranked in the AP Top 25 for the first time in program history and have the potential to be this year’s Cinderella team of the NCAA Tournament.
But even with a Top 25 ranking and a 21-5 record, most analysts like ESPN’s John Gasaway still has USF as a bubble team that needs to win the AAC Tournament to make it to the Big Dance. This is understandable as the Bulls are currently ranked 84th in NET without a single Quad 1 game, much less win, on their resume at the moment. AAR’s crew still has three regular season games left on the schedule before the AAC Tournament, and the longer they keep the streak going, the longer they’ll stay in the Top 25. But if they fall short in either the semifinals or finals of the league tourney, there’s a chance they could be ranked in the final AP poll and still miss the NCAA Tournament.
This weird quirk has happened just four times since 1990 and each case involved a rising mid-major program. Let’s take a look at each time a Top 25 team has been left out of March Madness.
1992-93 UNLV
UNLV was wrecked by scandal and NCAA sanctions following its 1990 national championship and that led to the eventual forced resignation of legendary head coach Jerry Tarkanian. Villanova’s first national championship head coach Rollie Massimino took over for the 1992-93 season and led the Runnin’ Rebels to a 20-6 regular season record.
UNLV was bounced by Long Beach State in the semifinals of the Big West Tournament, and were ultimately left out of the NCAA Tournament field despite finishing ranked No. 25 in the country. Some have speculated the Rebels getting stiffed was punishment for all of the trouble they had gotten into in the early 90’s and with star guard J.R. Rider suspended, they were quickly bounced out of the NIT by USC.
2003-04 Utah State
The 2003-04 Utah State ran right through the Big West that year, posting a 25-2 record in the regular season. However, the league was incredibly weak as Pacific was the only other team in the conference ranked higher than 100th in KenPom. The Aggies weren’t able to take advantage of a double-bye straight into the semifinals of the Big West Tournament, falling 63-62 to Cal State Northridge.
USU was ranked No. 25 in the final AP poll, but missed the NCAA Tournament. It was actually tied in the poll with Boston College, who managed to make the second round of the big dance. The Aggies would ultimately fall to Hawai’i in the first round of the NIT.
2013-14 SMU
SMU made the jump from Conference USA to the AAC for the 2013-14 season and had success under Hall of Fame head coach Larry Brown. The Mustangs actually held their own in a top-heavy league that included defending national champion Louisville and eventual national champion UConn. They finished the season regular season with a 23-8 record, but it ended with a thud with back-to-back losses to Louisville and Memphis.
And then in the AAC Tournament, they immediately fell flat on their face by getting bounced out of the quarterfinal round by Houston. Despite being ranked No. 25 on Selection Sunday, SMU was left out of the field while four other AAC programs got in.
#SMU players, fans and coach Larry Brown react after missing out on #NCAA tourney. pic.twitter.com/3hoWvnQhFS
— Richard Durrett (@espn_durrett) March 16, 2014
The Mustangs would go on to make a strong run through the NIT, winning four games before falling to Minnesota in the championship round.
2017-18 Saint Mary’s
The most recent example of this rare phenomenon occurred with Saint Mary’s at the end of the 2017-18 season. The team powered through the regular season with a 27-4 regular season record, finishing just below Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference standings. Both their non-conference and conference schedule was subpar, but they did score a signature win when defeating the Zags 74-71 on the road.
The Gaels needed to at least make the WCC Tournament final to be considered safe and were unable to make that happen. They were shown the door in an 85-74 loss to BYU in the semifinals and despite being ranked No. 25 in the final AP poll, they were left out of the NCAA Tournament field. Saint Mary’s would go on to win two games in the NIT before falling to Utah in the quarterfinals.