The Mountain West Conference is the best reason to watch college basketball. But they’re not playing tonight, so let’s do the best we can with an old-fashioned slate that has massive NCAA Tournament implications.
It’s the last Wednesday in February, and that means lots of terrific basketball with plenty of stakes. Let’s get right to how to profit from it.
Florida -13 vs. Missouri
Mizzou is going to be fine under Dennis Gates in the long-term, but it’s hard to win college basketball games without healthy players. That’s how you end up 0-14 in the SEC and 7-20 ATS for the season. To give the Tigers credit, they’ve covered in two of their last three, and still give plenty of effort. But asking them to win games on the road in a tough league is like trying to fix a Boeing 737 with a coat hanger and Scotch tape.
The Florida Gators have been an offensive revelation this season, even if they’re going to struggle to defend anyone in the NCAA Tournament. But they have plenty of length, are third in the nation in offensive rebound rate, and they should lay the smack down early in the O’Dome. With four upperclassmen starters for Todd Golden, including point guard Walter Clayton and Seton Hall transfer Tyrese Samuel, they should put this one away before the hot dogs get cold.
When the Gators miss, which might not be often, expect plenty of putbacks against a Mizzou team that’s 353rd in the nation in allowing offensive boards. When there’s only 362 teams, that’s a problem.
Providence +12 at Marquette
While Tyler Kolek has been a revelation for the Golden Eagles this year, it’s hard to forget the defending Big East champs actually lost their first league game in Rhode Island this season. Providence held Marquette to just 4-20 from three-point range with 14 turnovers on December 19 in a 72-57 win. And PC’s 18th-ranked defense by efficiency was a big cause, which helped them get a massive win at Xavier last Wednesday for bubble purposes.
Devin Carter was a big part of that win in Cincinnati, and his 22.3 points and 13 rebounds per game during an active three-game win streak has kept the bubble in sight under first-year head coach Kim English.
Whether the Friars get over the top or not tonight is to be determined, but Joe Lunardi has PC on the bubble as a Last Four In team presently. A Quad 1 win of this caliber would safely move them out of Dayton, and a week off to prepare solely for this one doesn’t hurt either. Even if they don’t lock in an at-large bid, they should hang around enough to cover.
Arizona State +12 vs. Arizona
We can analytics so much of the sport of college basketball, yet often the best explanation of results is motivation. Especially in late February, when every player and coach is fried from the long season.
Sometimes there’s nothing better than playing with nothing to lose, and that’s where the Sun Devils are presently. Their upset win over a physical Washington State on Saturday showed they’re still fighting, and while they’re just 1-7 vs. Quad 1 teams, they’ve yet to face one in Phoenix. And they’re 5-1 on-campus vs. Quad 2.
Meanwhile UofA’s fortress in Tucson was finally breached on Thursday, as that same Washington State team came in and got their signature win of the season. The 45-point pasting two weeks ago in this rivalry in the McKale Center will give bettors pause, but it shouldn’t. Don’t expect the Sun Devils to lose the rebounding battle 36-21 again, or to shoot just 6-24 from downtown either.