The Maryland Terrapins have not achieved what they were hoping for this season with a 7-10 record in Big Ten Conference play but have a prime opportunity to enter the conference tournament with a .500 record if they win their final three games, which starts on Wednesday when they host the Northwestern Wildcats.
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Maryland Terrapins (-3.5, 128.5)
This will be the fifth game Northwestern plays without guard Ty Berry, who was a starter averaging 11.3 points on a team-best 43.3% 3-point shooting and though the team is 3-1 since Berry suffered a season-ending injury, it could catch up with Northwestern.
The three wins Northwestern has picked up without Berry have come against Penn State, Indiana and Michigan — a trio of teams all below .500 in conference play and now, they will face a Maryland unit that is much more efficient on offense at home than on the road.
The Terrapins are just 211th in the nation in points scored on a per-possession basis on offense but average 13.5 points more per 100 possessions at home than on the road and get to face a Northwestern defense that has been unable to guard the perimeter all season.
Overall in terms of points allowed on a per-possession basis, Northwestern ranks 173rd but also 337th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. Fortunately for Northwestern, Maryland has been one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation, ranking 347th in the country at 28.9%. However, it looked competent from beyond the 3-point arc the first time these teams met on January 17.
In the first meeting, Northwestern picked up a 72-69 win where Maryland went 6-of-17 from 3-point range and lost the rebound battle 30-to-27, something it should correct on Wednesday.
Northwestern ranks 252nd in the nation in rebound rate with Brooks Barnhizer being the only player on the roster averaging more than 4.5 rebounds per game while Maryland ranks 40th in home rebound rate.
While Maryland does allow opponents to shoot 35% from 3-point range in home games, that number appears to be an outlier and a matter of circumstance as its opponent’s 3-point shooting percentage overall is 31.7%, good for 60th in the nation.
That figures to stymie a Northwestern offense that gets 37.6% of its points in road games on made threes, the 30th-highest percentage in the nation.
With Maryland not allowing teams to take 3-pointers altogether, ranking 11th in the nation in the lowest percentage of opponents’ field goal attempts that come from 3-point range, it will use a defense that ranks 13th nationally in points allowed on a per-possession basis to pick up a win on Wednesday.
The Play: Maryland -3.5
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