The Mississippi State Bulldogs have quietly gone on a five-game winning streak and will look to make it six on Tuesday when they play host to the Kentucky Wildcats.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (-4.5, 156.5)
This will be a battle of strength on strength as Kentucky ranks eighth in the nation in points scored on a per-possession basis and is coming off a 117-point performance on Saturday against Alabama. On the other side, Mississippi State has allowed 71 points or fewer in all five games of its winning streak and ranks 26th overall in points allowed on a per-possession basis.
The backbone of Kentucky’s offense has been ball security and 3-point shooting, leading the nation in 3-point shooting percentage (41%) and ranking ninth in turnovers per possession.
While Kentucky has still been effective on the road, its 3-point shooting percentage falls to 38.8% and the team averages 13.8 points fewer per 100 possessions on the road than at home.
For as strong as Kentucky’s 3-point shooting has been, Mississippi State’s been solid defending it, ranking fourth in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 28.3%.
The one offensive category where the Bulldogs will have a large edge is offensive rebounding. Mississippi State is grabbing 33.7% of its missed shots as an offensive rebound, which ranks 24th in the nation. Kentucky allows its opponents to grab offensive rebounds 27.2% of the time, which ranks 186th in the nation.
With Mississippi State ranked 70th in turnovers forced per defensive play at home, its strength has what it takes to neutralize Kentucky’s offensive firepower. Also, with the Wildcats ranked 152nd in the nation in points allowed on a per-possession basis but allowing fewer points per possession on the road than at home, the Bulldogs’ winning streak will continue on Tuesday on the back of their defense.
The Play: Kentucky vs. Mississippi State Under 156.5
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