The No. 11 Baylor Bears take on the TCU Horned Frogs in a Big XII matchup on Monday, February 26. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET, and the game will air on ESPN.
Baylor (19-8, 8-6 Big XII) fell to Houston in overtime in their latest game, and have now lost two games in a row and three of their last five. The Bears put up a massive second-half comeback after going into halftime down 16 points, but they couldn’t quite get past the hump. On Monday, they will attempt to even the score with TCU, who defeated the Bears earlier this season 105-102 in overtime.
Baylor ranks 14th overall at KenPom and fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency. They average 81.8 points per game (20th in the nation) and shoot 48.7% from the field (15th in the nation). They also shoot 40.3% from the three-point line — the second-best perimeter mark in the country. The Bears can struggle with ball security, ranking outside of the top 100 in turnovers per game and outside of the top 200 in opponent steals per game.
The Bears are led by guard Ja’Kobe Walter with 14.7 points per game, though Walter is just one of six players who average in the double digits in the scoring column. The Bears have pulled off wins over Texas Tech and Iowa State this month, but have fallen to Kansas and BYU in a challenging Big XII schedule.
TCU (19-8, 8-6 Big XII) grabbed a dominant win over Cincinnati. They have won three of their last four games, and the sole loss during that stretch came by one point against Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs rank 25th overall at KenPom and 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They average 81.3 points per game (22nd in the nation) on 48% shooting (26th in the nation). They also record 9.2 steals per game (14th in the nation).
In their latest game, Emmanuel Miller and JaKobe Coles each put up 18 points. Miller leads the team with 16.1 points and 5.9 rebounds per game. The Horned Frogs are currently projected to earn a No. 9 seed at ESPN. In their previous win against Baylor, they limited the Bears from the perimeter while shooting 40% from the three-point line on offense, and took advantage of Baylor’s ball insecurity to grab 12 steals.
Langston Love is questionable to play for Baylor.
Baylor vs. TCU odds from DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: TCU -2.5
Total: 148
Moneyline: TCU -135, Baylor +114
Pick: TCU -2.5
Baylor has not done particularly well on the road this year, and the young team will likely still be reeling from that tough overtime loss to Houston. The Horned Frogs have already shown them up this season, and as TCU heads back to their home turf, I like the Frogs to cover here. The two teams’ offenses are comparable, but TCU should be able to take advantage of Baylor’s ball insecurity to force turnovers and grab some points on breakaways.