The Iowa Hawkeyes travel to Champaign on Saturday in a game they could use for their NCAA Tournament hopes against the Illinois Fighting Illini, who are currently in second place in the Big Ten standings.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (-9.5, 170.5)
Both teams having been explosive on offense all season with Illinois 16th in the country in points scored on a per possession basis while Iowa is 22nd in the department, but the venue itself might lead to both offenses being slowed down.
Much of Illinois offensive success has come away from home as the Fighting Illini lead the country in points scored on a per possession basis away from home while ranking 86th in points per possession at home, averaging 5.9 points per 100 possessions fewer at home than in a road or neutral court environment.
As for Iowa, they not just average 12.5 points fewer per 100 possessions in games played away from home, ranking 58th in points per possession away from home, but their pace has been slowed down significantly away from home.
The Hawkeyes are overall 38th in the country in total possessions per game according to TeamRankings with their 76.2 possessions per game ranking 12th in the country while their 71.6 possessions per game away from home are 132nd in the country.
That slowed down Iowa offense also has to try to bust through an Illinois defense that has been far better at home than away from home, as Illinois is overall 71st in the nation in points allowed on a per possession basis, but are allowing 22 points fewer per 100 possessions at home than in a road or neutral court environment, ranking 18th in the country in points allowed on a per possession basis at home.
While Iowa is 250th in the country in points allowed on a per possession basis on defense, they have guarded the 3-point line well away from home, allowing opponents to make 33.2% of their 3-point attempts, which ranks 113th nationally.
With Illinois being a far better defensive team at home coupled with the Iowa offense getting slowed down when away from Carver-Hawkeye Arena, it will lead to Saturday’s clash being a lower scoring struggle than expected.
The Play: Iowa vs. Illinois Under 170.5
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