There’s a new Teaser tool in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub. Check it out to make your own Teaser plays for NBA games.
The tool allows us to toggle the tease total to see how a play has performed against various numbers.
Teaser odds: +128
Grizzlies +15.5
On the eve of the NBA All-Star Break, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are listed as probable in Memphis. With the big weekend coming, their statuses could change very quickly, but I’m operating as if they’re a full go.
The Grizzlies are on the second leg of a back-to-back. This is the eighth back-to-back they’ve had all season, and they’re 4-3 against the spread in those games. But when coming off a win, they’re 2-0 ATS. Meanwhile, the Bucks are a mere 4-5 ATS when playing an opponent that’s on the second leg of a back-to-back this season. Also, the Bucks have only won by double digits in 17 of the 49 games that they’ve been favored.
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25287722/IMG_3056.jpeg)
Also, looking at the market activity, the Grizzlies are getting 22% of the spread bets, but a whopping 58% of the handle. What’s even wilder is what’s going on with the moneyline bets. With the Grizzlies being +11.5 dogs, it makes sense that they’re just getting 24% of the moneyline bets for this game. But the sharps also seem to love them straight-up, with Memphis receiving 41% of the handle for moneyline plays from this game.
Trail Blazers +13
Similar to the MIL-MEM situation, Anthony Edwards is questionable (knee) after dropping 41 in Portland on Tuesday. Still going to operate as if he’s playing, but given the tag, it would be even less shocking for him to sit out than Milwaukee’s two starts in Memphis.
Thursday will mark the third time these two teams have met this season. Minnesota has covered on both occasions. The first time, the Timberwolves won by 23 when they hosted the Blazers in January, then they won by 12 on Tuesday in Portland. Still, Minnesota is just 5-5 ATS as a road favorite against Western Conference teams following that cover.
The Blazers aren’t exactly automatic in this setting either at just 6-7, but 12.5 appears to be a key number for them when playing as a home dog against Western Conference teams. If they were getting +10.5 every time they were a home dog, their record ATS would still be 6-7 in this setting. Bump that up to +11.5, they’d improve to 8-5 ATS. Go all the way up to our number of +12.5 and they’d be 11-2 ATS.
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25287724/IMG_3057.jpeg)
Looking at the market activity, the Blazers are getting 13% of the spread bets and 15% of spread handle. A little edge, but what’s really interesting is they’re getting 18% of the moneyline bets and 28% of the moneyline handle.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
