The Pittsburgh Steelers once again found a way to end the 2023 season with a winning record and a playoff berth but also lost their fifth straight playoff game. Since their last playoff win in 2016, the Steelers have been in dire need of a quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger was still starting well past his prime and then the Steelers made an ill-advised first-round pick on Kenny Pickett to extend their misery.
The stellar Steelers defense along with benching Pickett for Mason Rudolph helped them sneak into the playoffs, but there was never any doubt that the Buffalo Bills would beat them. And they did so easily, 31-17. Does it matter that head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record in the regular season? Yes, it shows he is a damn good coach. But, if you can’t reliably get into the playoffs and at least have a shot at making a run, a winning record only goes so far.
Pickett, the incumbent starting signal-caller, was benched toward the end of the season after Rudolph played well with the former first-rounder out with an injury. There really is no coming back from that. Tomlin told reporters that Pickett would have competition in 2024 and with Mitch Trubisky recently released and Rudolph wanting a fresh start somewhere else, the Steelers will bring in competition and likely, hopefully for their sakes, a player that will supplant Pickett before they even get on the field. If Pickett is starting for the Steelers in Week 1, something went sideways.
It sure appears the Steelers will look to upgrade their quarterback position this offseason. One quarterback has the opportunity to be an upgrade, while also bearing the potential to become their long-term starter. He happens to be just 24 and could reportedly be had for a second-rounder and change. That man is Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields, and if the Steelers trade for him, it will make them Super Bowl contenders.
Justin Fields
There is a chance Fields isn’t even available in a trade, but he probably will be. The Bears have the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and Fields has had plenty of growing pains while transitioning to the NFL. USC’s Caleb Williams will likely be better than Fields out of the gate and will be on a rookie contract. The Bears really would be taking a big risk sticking with Fields in this scenario, even though he did show improvement in 2023. So, let’s say they decide to draft Williams and trade Fields. Would the Steelers even want him?
The answer is yes. We also have ESPN’s Adam Schefter saying that Tomlin is a fan of Fields and that the Steelers are going to go out and get a quarterback. Of course, there were no actual reports of the Steelers looking to trade for Fields and owner Art Rooney II already downplayed the idea of trading for a starting quarterback.
There is a chance Rooney just doesn’t want to raise expectations or tip his hand in negotiations, so I wouldn’t completely give up on Fields to the Steelers. Yes, the Steelers are loathe to give up draft capital, but they also know that doing the same thing over and over hasn’t been working. Plus, the asking price for Fields doesn’t sound overly high.
The bigger question is, would Fields elevate Pittsburgh to Super Bowl contenders? At first blush, most would say no, but we’ve seen Tomlin get his team to the playoffs with sub-par quarterback play and no matter what you think of Fields, the man is a gifted playmaker if nothing else.
Pittsburgh has never seen anything like Fields at the QB position. Putting a dynamic offensive weapon like Fields on the Steelers with a strong defense and offensive skill position players makes for a team that can potentially win playoff games. We’re going to lean into “potential” here, but that’s what you’re paying for with Fields and it’s what the Steelers need if they continue to win enough to never have a top pick in the NFL Draft.
Arthur Smith
Despite my dislike of Arthur Smith as the head coach in Atlanta, as the Titans’ offensive coordinator, he turned Ryan Tannehill into a plus-starter using RPO concepts and letting his natural talents as a runner flourish around the goal line. The Titans were still very much a run-oriented team, as Derrick Henry was an absolute beast, rushing for over 2,000 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2020 under Smith. But, efficiency on offense helped elevate Tannehill as a passer and runner.
In his six seasons with the Dolphins, Tannehill averaged a 62.8% completion rate, while throwing 123 touchdowns to 75 interceptions. In his two seasons in Tennessee under Smith, Tannehill completed 67.3% of his passes and threw 55 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. As you can imagine, all of his other meaningful stats also saw big leaps.
Smith seemed overwhelmed as the head man in Atlanta, but moving back to focus on being the offensive coordinator with the Steelers could be the perfect spot for him. The Steelers have had poor offensive coordinators of late (we see you Matt Canada) and Smith has proven he can win with a seemingly sub-par quarterback and strong run game.
Despite being run-oriented, Smith’s play concepts are much more varied and dynamic than what the Steelers are used to. Smith uses motion to read defenses and create mismatches. He varies alignments and looks to hide the offenses’ intent, but all the while keeping to a run-first plan that puts his quarterbacks in advantageous spots when they do throw the ball. And when they do throw the ball, they often let it fly. If you are a fantasy player, you probably noticed how many “air yards” TE Kyle Pitts garnered in Smith’s offense, as when he did see targets, they were deep. Unfortunately, the Falcons quarterbacks were not very good. But we can look to Tannehill to see that he led the league in yards per attempt under Smith.
Last season the Falcons ranked fourth in play-action passes, while the Steelers ranked 30th. Pittsburgh’s offense was predictable, while the Falcons didn’t have the personnel to pull off Smith’s vision, which likely was clouded by his many other duties as head coach. The Steelers, with an offense that runs the ball on first down and then passes to the boundaries on third down, were stuck in the water.
Has Justin Fields been getting better?
Yes, statistically Fields continues to get better each season, but not by leaps and bounds. But, if you were a Bears fan in the 2023 season, you had to believe Fields was improving. The team won four of their last six games, including a win over the Lions. The Bears also didn’t have the best set of receivers outside D.J. Moore. There are plenty of people who believe the team should stick with Fields as the starter and use their draft capital on positions other than QB.
Overall, he improved in completion percentage, interceptions percentage, sack percentage, adjusted net yards per passing attempt, and passing yards per game. He also ranked as one of the better deep passers in the league, ranking Top 10 in deep ball accuracy and 12th in air yards per attempt. That could pair well with Smith’s usage of the deep pass on play action.
Justin Fields as a runner
We’ve avoided it for long enough. Fields is an absolute beast as a runner. Through 40 games played, he has rushed for 2,220 yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. That’s an extra 55.5 yards of offense per game from the quarterback running the ball. And under Smith, Tannehill had seven rushing touchdowns in 2020. Just think if he had Fields to run the ball for him.
We’ve seen quarterbacks who are more effective at running the ball than throwing it do well in offensive schemes that are heavy in rush attempts while being selective when throwing. Lamar Jackson comes to mind first, as John Harbaugh and company were not going to make Jackson a pass-first QB, but instead, let him use his dynamic skill as a runner set up very advantageous passing situations. Jackson has quickly put up great passing stats, but the team has remained run-heavy, utilizing his ability on the ground to set up the pass and demoralize opponents.
In Jackson’s rookie season, he went 6-1 while completing just 58% of his passes. We also know for a fact that a good running quarterback helps the running backs per touch efficiency, as teams must worry about both the quarterback and running backs beating them. Add in Smith’s more dynamic, but still run-first offense, and you have a very interesting rushing offense with Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris and Fields.
How might Justin Fields look in Arthur Smith’s offense?
The run game would be multi-dimensional with three different threats and always two on the field at the same time. If you thought Smith ran the ball a lot in Atlanta, with Fields, it would be even more. That run game should be successful, just how successful would be the question. The Steelers in 2023 ran the ball poorly early on, but were able to get things going in the second half, scoring a touchdown and going over 100 yards per game. Warren showed how dynamic he can be, while Harris fared much better as the season went along between the tackles.
On play action, we’d see George Pickens as the deep threat and despite his trouble separating, his ability to bring in contested catches along with Fields’ ability as a deep passer should work together. Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth would work short and mid-range routes, which should be more successful with the running game and Smith’s ability to scheme players open over the middle of the field, unlike Canada, who loved the boundaries, making throws extremely difficult for the weak-armed Pickett.
Would the Steelers really be Super Bowl contenders?
Yes. They have the overall personnel to compete in most games even with a dud at the quarterback position. Fields, in a run-first offense that limits turnovers and creates limited, but advantageous and explosive passing opportunities, could easily be the piece that pushes the Steelers from first-round loser to Super Bowl contender.