This is the week. There are pitchers and catchers reporting to Florida and Arizona as we speak. Heck, the Super Bowl was this past Sunday. If that isn’t the unofficial start of baseball season, I don’t know what is.
To celebrate, allow me to scratch the surface of the DraftKings Sportsbook’s wealth of MLB futures for the 2024 season. Today, we’ll be focusing on individual player totals. Before you say anything, I’m aware that taking unders is pragmatic because of ever-present injury concerns. However, we all know overs are more fun.
Now that that’s out of the way, let’s dive in.
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Home Runs
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 28.5 (-110)
While Kauffman Stadium will never be a haven for power hitters, Witt’s stunning sophomore campaign has me willing to overlook park factors when taking a side on this total. Simply put, the 23-year-old did everything you’d want to see from a former top prospect in his second full MLB season. Most notably, Witt saw his ISO rise from .174 as a rookie to .218 in 2023, yet it wasn’t at the expense of plate discipline, with the shortstop’s strikeout rate (17.4%) and chase rate (34.4%) also falling precipitously. That’s how you hit 30 home runs and rank in the 95th percentile of expected slugging percentage (.533) while also sitting in the 95th percentile of expected batting average (.294). That’s phenom stuff. That’s $288 million extension stuff.
Another thing Witt has working in his favor is raw volume. Not only is Witt young enough to handle the rigors of playing shortstop every day, but he’ll do so locked into the two-slot in Kansas City’s lineup. Inherently, that gives Witt a higher plate appearance expectation than someone hitting even third or fourth. Witt’s 694 PAs in 2023 were the 12th-most in baseball. His 529 batted ball events were the eighth-most — a number definitely assisted by Witt’s below-average walk rate. You might roll your eyes at analysis this basic. I get it. It’s no more complex than counting. Yet look no further that last season to see the benefit of just racking up appearances and BBEs. Witt’s 11.5% barrel rate was 31st among qualified hitters. His 61 total barrels? Tied for ninth-most with Kyle Schwarber. This matters.
Strikeouts
Tyler Glasnow Under 173.5 (-110)
I’ll fully admit that I don’t understand this line. Like, at all. Don’t get me wrong, Glasnow is an absolute stud when healthy. In fact, since the beginning of 2019, the RHP’s 35.0% strikeout rate ranks behind only Josh Hader, Jacob DeGrom and Spencer Strider among pitchers who have thrown at least 250 innings in that span of time. Yet, that stat is a double-edged sword. For as amazing as it is in theory, that list of players looms large. The fact that Strider, who appeared in just two games prior to 2022, has thrown 12.0 fewer frames than Glasnow. The fact that I had to bring the innings threshold down far enough that a closer like Hader was included in the player pool. The fact that Glasnow has started 16 fewer games than DeGrom in that five-year stretch — the literal poster boy for injury-plagued aces. It all speaks volumes.
Glasnow’s career-high in innings is 120.0. His career-high in strikeouts is 162. While I’m sure the Dodgers would be thrilled to see the 30-year-old toss 150 innings in 2024, it seems far more likely to me that the team will be extra cautious with the man it just signed to a $110 million extension. It helps that by July, Los Angeles should be one of few teams truly able to take a load off its pitchers’ arms thanks to absurd rotation depth. The Dodgers trading for Glasnow wasn’t the club’s only move this winter. Los Angeles signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto and James Paxton. It brought back Clayton Kershaw, who should be ready to pitch in season’s second half, along with Dustin May and Walker Buehler. The Dodgers also have top prospects like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone waiting in the wings. Even if Glasnow stays healthy — which is already a massive if — he won’t be pushed in Los Angeles like he would need to be in other situations.
Milestones
Mike Trout to Hit his 400th Career HR: Yes (+125)
Speaking of players who are always hurt: Mike Trout. Once pegged to possibly be the greatest of all-time, Trout’s recently seen injuries (and COVID) derail his trajectory, as the 32-year-old has only managed 290 games and 1,248 plate appearances since the beginning of 2020. Still, despite it all, Trout’s mustered a .301 ISO and a 162 wRC+ in that limited sample. Don’t get it twisted. The man remains a beast in the batter’s box.
For Trout to reach his 400th career home run in 2024, he’ll need to hit 32 long balls. For context, the former first-round pick hit 40 home runs in just 499 plate appearances in 2022. Derek Carty’s lauded projection system, THE BAT, has Trout mashing 35 homers in 2024 in a mere 545 PAs. Any way you slice it, this bet is definitely less about can Trout hit 32 home runs and more will Trout be healthy long enough to do so. I’m leaning towards yes.
Call me an optimist if you must, but there’s a key difference this season for Trout in Los Angeles. Something he hasn’t had the luxury of doing for the past half-decade: ABs at DH. That’s right. The lone silver-lining of Shohei Ohtani’s departure for greener pastures. Trout had nine plate appearances at DH in 2023. He had 29 PAs in 2022. That means Trout, with a bad back or nagging oblique, only had the opportunity to take 4.4% of his 861 plate appearances the past two seasons without also having to play centerfield. That’s a big deal! Even the offseason addition of someone as forgettable as Aaron Hicks signifies that the Angels are aware that non-Trout players will need to carry at least some of the load in center in 2024. If that’s truly the plan, I think Trout has a huge year at the dish. Worst case, you’re banking on a generational talent at plus-money. What’s not to like?
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
