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Boston College vs. SMU: Picks, best bets for Fenway Bowl in Boston on Thursday

The Eagles and Mustangs meet at Fenway Park. We go over the betting odds and make a prediction and pick.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 24 Miami (FL) at Boston College Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Boston College Eagles take on the SMU Mustangs in the Fenway Bowl on Thursday, December 28. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET from Fenway Park.

Boston College (6-6, 3-5 ACC) limped through November, dropping the last three games of their season after becoming bowl eligible. The Eagles grabbed wins over Georgia Tech, Army, and Syracuse this season, but the highlight of 2023 for Boston College was their extremely close loss against Florida State early in the season. Unfortunately, they were unable to harness that level of play again. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos finished the season with 15 passing touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and also led the team in rushing with 957 yards and 11 touchdowns.

SMU (11-2, 9-0 AAC) wrapped up their season with a dominant AAC win, beating Tulane in the conference title game 26-14. The Mustangs, who join the ACC in 2024, had quite the parting farewell tour in the AAC as they put together an undefeated conference slate. They grabbed wins over Memphis, Rice, and North Texas, and their two losses came at the hands of TCU and Oklahoma. SMU quarterback Preston Stone sustained a season-ending leg injury in the regular season finale, but QB Kevin Jennings got the job done in the AAC Championship. Jennings will likely start in this game.

Here’s everything you need to know and a pick for the bowl.

SP+ Rankings

Boston College: 81 overall, 83 offense, 78 defense
SMU: 25 overall, 18 offense, 31 defense

List of injuries and players opting out of game

Boston College

LB Jaylen Blackwell - Out for season (undisclosed)

SMU

DE Jayden Jones - Questionable (shoulder)
DE Braeden Flowers - Questionable (knee)
QB Preston Stone - Out for season (leg)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

Boston College: 4-8 ATS
SMU: 8-5 ATS

Total in 2023

Boston College: Over 8-3-1
SMU: Over 6-7

Team Pace

Boston College: 25.8 seconds per play
SMU: 24.7 seconds per play

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: SMU -10
Total: 48
Moneyline: SMU -375, BC +295

Weather

48°F, Light rain, 61% chance of precipitation, 9 MPH winds

Our Best Bet for the Fenway Bowl

SMU -10

Despite Preston Stone’s absence, I like the Mustangs to cover here. BC was a very weak team in the second half of the season, while the Mustangs found a way to dominate in a conference championship game without their starting quarterback. SMU significantly outranks BC in just about every stat line and brings a high-powered offense and tough defense to this matchup. This one should be a blowout.