The NFC South is a mess coming out of Week 14 and there is a strong chance we see a sub-.500 team claim the division crown when the 2023 regular season wraps up in January.
The Falcons lost to the Bucs in Week 14 and that coupled with the Saints win over the Panthers has created a three-way tie atop the division standings. Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans are all 6-7 and there’s a legitimate path to an 8-9 division winner. There’s an outside shot at a wild card berth for one of the two non-division winners, but it’s unlikely.
Atlanta Falcons current odds
DraftKings odds: To make playoffs — Yes +140, No -175; NFC South +160
DVOA playoff odds: TBD
ESPN FPI: 36.9%
NY Times odds: 34%
Upcoming Schedule
Week 15: @ Carolina Panthers
Week 16: vs. Indianapolis Colts
Week 17: @ Chicago Bears
Week 18: @ New Orleans Saints
The Falcons could go anywhere from 4-0 to 0-4 in this final stretch and nothing would surprise me. Three road games over the final four weeks is tough for any mediocre team, so I’m inclined to go with a 2-2 mark in these final four games. They should beat the Panthers, but even that is no sure thing. If they can get that win, a home win over the Colts or a road win over the Bears or Saints makes sense. There’s no reason to bet on more than that, but anything is possible.
Final record prediction: 8-9
Current NFC playoff standings
Verdict
I’m leaning no, but it will likely come down to the season finale against their hated rivals, the Saints. In running through ESPN’s Playoff Machine, I have them beating the Panthers and Colts, and losing to the Bears. That would set them at 8-8 heading into their season finale in New Orleans. That game is a coin flip