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Lakers vs. Mavericks pick against the spread, over/under for Tuesday, December 12

We go over some of the best betting options for Tuesday’s matchup between the Lakers and Mavericks.

Dallas Mavericks v Los Angeles Lakers
Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks handles the ball during the game against LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers on November 22, 2023 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California.
Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images

Update: Vanderbilt has been ruled out. Doncic, Hardaway Jr., Davis and James are in. The line is now Lakers -2.5 and the total is 236. I’ll stay with Lakers -2.5 as the ATS pick and the under on the new total.

Update: Tim Hardaway Jr. and Luka Doncic are questionable for Dallas, while Grant Williams is off the injury report. The Lakers have become 4-point favorites and the total is 231, but we’ll hold off on an updated pick until Doncic’s status gets cleared up.

Fresh off their In-Season Tournament title Saturday, the Los Angeles Lakers (14-9) get back to regular season play with a showdown against the Dallas Mavericks (14-8) Tuesday evening. The Mavericks registered a win over the Grizzlies Monday, and have won their last three games. These teams have met once so far this season, with Dallas grabbing a 104-101 win.

LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Jarred Vanderbilt are all questionable for the Lakers. We can expect James and Vanderbilt to play, but Davis appears to be more of a 50-50 call. Kyrie Irving is sidelined indefinitely for Dallas with a heel contusion. We’ll know the status of Luka Doncic on the second night of a back-to-back set later in the day when the Mavericks release an official injury report.

The Lakers are 1.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 234. Los Angeles is -125 on the moneyline while Dallas is +105.

Lakers vs. Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick ATS: Lakers -1.5

For the time being, let’s assume Davis and Doncic are both good to go. The Lakers have been on a roll lately, winning and covering in their last four games including the In-Season Tournament final. They’ve covered in six of their last eight games. Since that blowout loss to the 76ers, it’s been a different Los Angeles team that has leaned into its defense.

The Mavericks are 12-10 ATS this season, but just 4-6 ATS as the home team. Dallas is surprisingly decent on back-to-backs, going 2-2 ATS with no rest and 3-3 ATS as the team with a rest disadvantage. However, not having Irving will be tough to overcome in this spot. I like the Lakers to keep up their great play of late and get another win.

Over/Under: Under 234

The last meeting between these teams went under this number, and that was with Irving in the fold. The Mavericks are one of the most over-friendly teams in the league, going 16-6 on overs. However, they are 2-2 on overs when going into a game with no rest. Despite averaging 128 points per game over the last four contests, I think this Mavericks offense takes a bigger hit with Irving out.

Since getting routed by Philadelphia, the Lakers have locked in defensively. They are 2-4 on overs, with the four unders coming in a row through the In-Season Tournament final. The Lakers have held their last four opponents to under 110 points, including two games where they kept their opponents under 100 points. I like the under in this game, especially on a slightly higher total.