Week 14 is closing in on us and it looks like we will finally have some games that will be impacted by weather. But, as usual, we often overestimate the impact of weather and make bad decisions based on forecasts that could be slightly off for that narrow three hours of game play. So, it’s a tough balance we try to get right. One way to look at the weather is to ask if sportsbooks are taking it seriously.
This week, it appears as if some books are taking the weather seriously, as we’ve seen some totals drop for games that have weather concerns.
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens
The total for this game started at 45 on DraftKings Sportsbook and currently has dropped to 40. Can we attribute that drop solely on the weather? No, but that’s a big enough move to be based on more than the machinations of the betting public and there haven’t been any major injuries announced.
The weather calls for rain and wind. We’re still a ways out, so specifics aren’t as important as the fact that it will likely be windy and rainy. The wind is more concerning than rain usually, but there is also a chance for heavy rain at this point. If you can get those two together, you have trouble for offenses. Temperatures should be around 65 degrees, so that won’t be a problem. What we’ll want to know more about as we get closer is how windy and how much rain. Since this is a 1 pm game, we likely can get a good idea of how bad it is before betting/setting our fantasy lineups.
Houston Texans at New York Jets
This game started off with a total of 38 and has dropped to 33. Much like Baltimore, Metlife Stadium has wind and rain in the forecast. It’s still too early to get specific rainfall totals and wind speeds, but wind is usually easier to predict than rain totals and it’s looking to hit our mark of 20 mph that we look for in assessing games. We’ll update as we close in on the game.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns
Browns fans and fantasy players alike know just how windy it can get in Cleveland this time of the year. The wind has truly impacted offenses in the past. The good news is that the wind doesn’t look like it will be gusting up to 50 mph like it has in previous games. Right now gusts up to 25 mph are predicted, while there is just a chance for rain with temperatures in the 50s.
This matchup started with a total of 38.5 and is now down to 30.5, but that also takes into account Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley injuries, plus the weather.
