Four undefeated teams remain in the 2023 college football season (five counting Liberty, but we’re not), and they each control their own destinies as they head into their conference championship games this weekend. Georgia takes on Alabama, Michigan faces Iowa, Washington goes head to head again with Oregon, and Florida State plays Louisville.
But do they truly control their own destinies? In a vacuum, sure. But Florida State is the pebble in the selection committee’s shoe right now — the loss of starting quarterback Jordan Travis to a season-ending injury with just two games left changes everything. They are simply not the same team without him as they were with him, but they managed to beat Florida in The Swamp last weekend. If they can get a win against Louisville in the ACC title game, can the committee leave an undefeated conference champion out? Especially one with a win over LSU?
If FSU loses, some chaos could be abated, but not all of it. In that scenario, the committee has to be praying for Georgia, Michigan, and Texas to win to make things easier. The winner of Washington/Oregon would receive the final spot and this is easy. But this isn’t guaranteed — what if Alabama beats Georgia? Who is left out if two SEC teams get in?
The answer to almost all of these, unfortunately for Longhorns fans, is Texas. If FSU wins out, Texas will more than likely be the first team out rather than the winner of Oregon/Washington. If Oregon wins, they will have proven their mettle from the mid-season loss at Washington. And if Washington wins, they remain undefeated through the best season in the Pac-12 in long time.
If FSU loses but two SEC teams and Michigan get in — again, the final spot will likely go to the winner of Oregon/Washington over Texas. The Longhorns could win their conference championship by three touchdowns and still be snubbed because of where they sit in the rankings. Yes they won a head-to-head over Alabama early in the season, but can you keep out an SEC champ who just beat the reigning national champions?
For Texas to get in, Georgia and Michigan will need to win, and FSU probably needs to lose.
We’ll know more by the end of the weekend, but here are this week’s CFP rankings as of now.