The third college playoff rankings were released on Tuesday, and the potential for total chaos in December remains, making the coming weeks ahead of conference championship weekend even more exciting. The top four remained mostly the same, though Georgia and Ohio State switched spots to put the Bulldogs at No. 1 and Ohio State at No. 2.
The undefeated teams that remain that would be eligible for the College Football Playoff are No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan, No. 4 Florida State, and No. 5 Washington. The one-loss teams that remain are No. 6 Oregon, No. 7 Texas, No. 8 Alabama, and on a long shot, No. 10 Louisville.
Let’s take a look at our chaos scenarios here:
Scenario 1: Ohio State and Michigan duke it out in a close game & Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship
Who do we leave out here? Assuming that there are other one-loss or undefeated conference championships in the running, does a one-loss team that sat in the top four for nearly every CFP ranking get left out? You can’t leave out a one-loss conference champion Alabama, but can you leave out the two-time reigning national champion who sat at No. 1? It seems absurd that the committee would simply put these four teams in and leave the other three Power 5 conferences out entirely, but this would be a tough decision.
Scenario 2: Florida State goes undefeated, and loses to Louisville in the ACC title game
If this were to play out and we had some combination of Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Texas, and a Pac-12 team with one or zero losses, does the committee leave the ACC champion out in favor of a one-loss non-champion? It seems like the answer is yes — while Louisville would have big wins over Notre Dame and FSU, their loss to Pitt is coming back to bite them.
Scenario 3: The Pac-12 doesn’t implode, and Texas wins the Big 12
In this case, there will be a one-loss conference champion almost guaranteed to be left out. Let’s play it out and say Alabama, Michigan, and FSU all win out and win their conferences. Does Pac-12 champion Washington/Oregon get in ahead of Georgia? Does Texas get in ahead of SEC Champion Alabama because the two met on the field earlier this season?