DraftKings Fantasy Football features an exciting showdown in Week 11. The DFS main slate may be in the books, but there is plenty of DFS action available for Sunday Night Football. Check out the NFL Showdown Slate DFS picks for the Week 11 Sunday Night Football matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (MIN vs DEN)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Pick
Josh Dobbs (CP $15,900)
DFS players are always the first to scream, “small sample size!” Dobbs was great against the Saints. He completed 23-of-34 passes for 268 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 44 yards and a TD. That’s just one game. It’s a little too soon to name him MVP or label the Vikings as championship contenders. On the other hand, that’s just his second game with his new team. In both games, his quarterback rating has been north of 100. This requires further investigation.
Dobbs has bounced around a lot during his career. He’s accustomed to it. The assumption is that in switching teams midstream so often, the QB must not be very good. The contrary might be true. One thing that is certain, is that a team that needs a QB in the middle of season is not a good team. The Cardinals were not a good team, but Dobbs still put up decent numbers every week. This is the first time the rocket scientist — Dobbs earned a bachelor’s degree in aerospace engineering at the University of Tennessee — landed on a good offense. The Vikings’ offense is about to get even better. There is a 50-50 chance that Justin Jefferson ($12,200) could return in Week 11 and complement the Vikings plethora of skill-position weapons.
Aside from his weapons, Dobbs is a weapon himself. This season, he has rushed for over 40 yards in seven of 10 games. He has five rushing touchdowns and has rushed for a TD in four straight. That’s not a small sample size.
FLEX Plays
T.J. Hockenson ($9,400)
Denver has allowed the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Cole Kmet, Travis Kelce and Dalton Kincaid each put up solid stat lines against the Broncos. Other than Kelce, neither of those tight ends are the focal points of their respective offenses. Even the Chiefs are known to spread the ball around. Hockenson differs. With Justin Jefferson out, Hockenson has been the central weapon of the Vikings’ air attack. Jordan Addison ($) is coming along, but Hockenson has been producing all season. He produced last season when he joined Minnesota. Even before the 2022 mid-season trade, the former first-round pick — No.8 overall in 2019 — showed signs of becoming an elite tight end on struggling Lions’ squads. This season, Hockenson leads all tight ends in targets, receptions and yards — and by a wide margin. He’s even tied for the most receiving touchdowns by a tight end.
Samaje Perine ($3,200)
DFS value picks are always risky. Just hear this out. One of the weaknesses of Minnesota’s defense is their propensity to allow yards after the catch. The problem is that Denver’s wide receivers have the worst YAC stats in the NFL. Obviously, comparing the YAC of a running back and receiver is not an apples to apples comparison given the typical route type of each position. Nevertheless, Perine has 261 yards after the catch. Neither Jerry Jeudy ($7,800) or Courtland Sutton ($8,200) have 100 yards after the catch. In terms of YAC per reception, Perine ranks fifth among all pass catchers. Last but not least, Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL (49%). This opens them up to running back check downs and screens. With everyone blitzing, a two-yard dump off can turn into a 40-yard TD.
Javonte Williams ($8,800)
Two running backs from the same team is an unconventional strategy. Winning an NFL DFS Showdown Slate requires bold moves. Drafting Williams isn’t that bold. Picking Perine is a gamble. Having both is a low probability play, but it will create a lineup that is different from most of the other tournament lineups on Sunday night. Williams started the season slowly, but he wasn’t at 100% and there was a new coaching staff in town. Everything is fine now. He’s rushed for over 75 yards in each of the last three games and carried the ball over 20 times in the last two. He has at least three receptions per game over that span and has a receiving TD in each of the last two.
Fades
Broncos DST ($4,400)
It’s en vogue to play defenses on NFL Showdown Slates at DraftKings. Unders are king this season. They’re hitting at a 61% clip. Prime-time games are even more skewed. Prime-time games have become low scoring affairs over the last several seasons (67% to the under), and it has continued in 2023 (73%). This makes the defenses appealing. In addition to this trend, Denver’s defense is trending in the right direction. The Broncos beat the Chiefs and Bills in back-to-back games, but that was thanks in most part to a ton of turnovers. The tide could easily turn and the trends could give way to regression. This may be another low scoring prime-time game, but in DFS a DST needs turnovers and TDs. Limiting the points of an opponent is not enough in GPPs. Denver needs Minnesota to make mistakes, but Josh Dobbs is dialed in.
THE OUTCOME
Which team is the impostor? Have the Broncos figured things out? Is Josh Dobbs for real? No one knows, but the Vikings were a good team last season and looked good to start this season. Is losing Kirk Cousins a real loss? It doesn’t appear to be.
Final Score: Minnesota Vikings 20, Denver Broncos 13
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (MIN vs DEN)
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