GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough and guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 11.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M PLAY-ACTION [$100K TO 1ST, 20 ENTRY MAX]
Stacks
Game Stack: Arizona Cardinals ($2,400) at Houston Texans
Kyler Murray ($6,100) — Marquise Brown ($5,300) — Trey McBride ($4,400) — Devin Singletary ($5,300)
Kyler Murray’s first game back was productive. 249 yards (7.8 yards per attempt) plus 33 yards rushing — and a rushing TD — was good enough for 18.26 DKFP, a pretty solid return — all things considered. His second game may bear more fruit. The Texans have been pretty atrocious as a secondary at times. Three of the last five QBs they’ve faced have thrown for well over 300 yards and many of those QBs have not been elite names.
The Cardinals come in as 4.5-5.0 point underdogs, making this a spot where we’ll likely see more passing from Murray. A higher volume day should only mean good things for his receivers, and that’s where Marquise Brown comes in. Brown is not going to be popular after going for just one catch in Murray’s debut (on four targets), but the two were inches away from connecting on a 20+ yard TD in last week’s game. Plus, these two have a solid history. Brown went for 60+ yards in five straight games with Murray last year (when DeAndre Hopkins was hurt) and it’s likely that he and Murray improve their connection against a Houston secondary that allowed two 100-yard games to WRs last week.
Where the Texans are truly vulnerable is in the middle of the field. They’ve allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing TEs, making this a great time to target Trey McBride, again, who remains affordable at just $4,400 on DraftKings. McBride saw great usage in Murray’s first start (8-131) and has an average target share of about 35% over the last three games. His rise should not be ignored, and with Murray likely to be throwing the ball more this week, it’s hard to see him not paying off this extremely low salary.
On the flip side, I’d not hesitate to go back to Devin Singletary either. Houston has not run the ball well this year, but it looks like Dameon Pierce (questionable) is on track to potentially miss this game. Singletary got an incredible 31 touches last week against the Bengals, a game where Houston was ahead for large portions. Arizona is second last in defensive DVOA and has allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing RBs this year, making Singletary a potentially screaming upside play at just $5,300 if his running mate misses.
Quarterback: Justin Fields ($6,900), Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Fields ran all over the Lions last season, going for 13-147-2 and 10-132 in the two games against Detroit last year. While we don’t want to assume he’ll replicate this feat, the Lions weren’t exactly stellar in stopping another running QB a few weeks ago — they let Lamar Jackson run for 9-36-1 in limited work.
Fields isn’t running as much this season — he hasn’t topped 60 yards in a game yet — but his upside has been bolstered by the addition of D.J. Moore ($5,600). Moore will face a Lions secondary that has been torched by WR1s and has allowed the sixth-most passing TDs this year. Fields has a lot to prove and checks in with a great matchup, making him a big-time upside option at QB for Week 11.
Running Back
Top End: Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000), Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears
The Bears are really bad at covering out of the backfield and have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing RBs this season. This is great news for Gibbs who comes into this week’s game having produced 30+ receiving yards in three straight starts. While he’s going to lose early down work to David Montgomery ($6,500), it’s worth noting that Gibbs played on 58% of the snaps last week and still had a very solid 64% route rate (and saw five targets).
The ‘Bears’ defense has been stellar against the run and they have physical corners that can limit big plays on the outside (unlike the Chargers). This sets up a high-usage spot for Gibbs, and his receiving talent should be on full display against a team like the Bears — who have been burned for multiple big games by elite receiving RBs this year.
Low End: Chuba Hubbard ($4,900), Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys
The Panthers are big underdogs in this game (+10.5) but I would still expect them to stick with the run as long as they can in this spot. The Cowboys’ rush defense has improved, but it’s still attackable and they have yielded some bigger games to opposing RBs — including a 14-98-1 line to James Conner ($5,700) back in Week 3.
Hubbard has also taken over as the lead back in Carolina, making this sub-5k salary look like a solid value. While he got shut down by a very good Bears rush defense last week, he also took 15+ carries in three of his last four games and caught multiple passes in three straight starts. If he finds the end zone in this contest, he’ll more than pay off this salary. Plus, his passing game usage gives him a better upside at this price than what would normally be perceived.
Wide Receiver
Top End: Cooper Kupp ($8,100), Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle game sets up well for passing attacks on both sides and it certainly screams for a bounceback game for Cooper Kupp. Kupp has taken a backseat over the last three games (under 50 yards receiving in three straight contests), but with Matthew Stafford ($6,400) back and 100% healthy, it’s likely that we see the top-five fantasy pick rebound with a big game in Week 11.
Seattle has been terrible in coverage all season — despite having talented corners — and come into this game having allowed the 10th most receptions to opposing WRs — despite having already played their bye. Kupp’s also had some great games against Seattle, going for 100+ yards and a TD against them twice since 2019. There is some risk that the Rams have seemingly moved on from Kupp as their main target, but given the matchup, playing for the veteran to bounceback seems like the right way to go — especially given the fact his high salary may keep ownership low in big field GPPs.
Top Value: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,300), Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
The Seahawks face a Rams secondary that has been failing more and more as the season has progressed. They didn’t get much action against the Packers but their previous two games saw them yield 100+ yards to a receiver on both occasions. Seattle obviously has a lot of big names and mouths to feed in the passing game, but Smith-Njigba has come on nicely of late as well. He’s averaging just under 6.0 targets a game in his last four contests and has started to see a little more action downfield — he has now gone for 50+ yards in three of his last four games.
The price here seems right to take a shot with the somewhat frustrating rookie. While we can’t bank on 7+ targets, the Rams are 22nd in yards per attempt against and may be facing an angry Seahawks team — who got walloped by the Rams in Week 1. If ever there were a spot for the rookie to break out, this would be it.
Tight End: Michael Mayer ($2,700), Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Mayer comes into this game seeing a lot more snaps than he was at the start of the season. His route rate over the last three games has exceeded 60% — in all three starts — and he’s coming off a game where he saw five targets from rookie Aiden O’Connell ($4,900) — the second-highest target total for Mayer this year.
The Dolphins are a really good matchup as well. They’ve allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing TEs and have two elite cornerbacks, which should push more action toward the middle of the field. At just $2,700, we don’t need a huge game to extract value here, but the circumstances suggest a bigger game for Mayer is coming. If we’re right, he could be the value play of the week on DraftKings.
Defense/Special Teams: New York Jets ($2,600) vs Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen ($8,200) remains an elite QB, but he’s also someone we shouldn’t fear starting a DST against for fantasy purposes. In fact, we should welcome the matchup. Allen has now thrown for an INT in six straight games and leads the NFL in turnovers with 14. The Jets’ defense is also one of the best at snagging balls and comes into this game with nine INTs already, having picked off Allen five times over their last three meetings.
At just $2,600, it’s hard not to see the value in the Jets this week. DST is a volatile position anyway, but the Jets have gone for 7.0 or more DKFP in six games this year — and have gone for 10.0 DKFP or more three times. It may feel dirty fading one of the best QBs in the league, but the Jets defense is an elite unit and likely forces an INT or two from the Bills starter once again.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M PLAY-ACTION [$100K TO 1ST, 20 ENTRY MAX]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
