The Arizona Cardinals will face the Houston Texans in Week 11 of the NFL season. Arizona is not only coming off its second win of the season but its first with a healthy Kyler Murray under center. The offense scored its most points since Week 2, but was the performance big enough that it should give you faith in the Cardinals against the Texans when it comes to betting on the matchup?
Let’s take a look at how Arizona stacks up against Houston and if there aren’t some favorable lines, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 11 Picks: Cardinals vs. Texans
Betting splits
Spread: Texans -5 (61% handle, 62% of bets)
Houston is at home and is the 5-point favorite. The Texans picked up an impressive 30-27 victory on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals that has caused rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud to have his name thrown around the MVP conversation. Arizona connected on a field goal as time expired to pick up a two-point win over the Atlanta Falcons.
If Murray was still injured, Houston’s spread would likely be larger. Murray finished 19-of-32 for 249 yards with an interception and added 33 yards and a touchdown on six carries. Arizona also activated running back James Conner for the game, and he finished with 73 yards on 16 carries.
The biggest knock against Arizona in this game is that they lack a dominant wide-receiving threat. Atlanta shut down Marquise Brown, and Murray relied on tight end Trey McBride, who had a great game. The Texans’ defense has looked better in 2023 than the last few years, but I think Murray helps to keep Arizona in the game.
Moneyline: Texans -225 (84% handle, 82% of bets)
Houston has won back-to-back games and sits at 5-4 in second place in the AFC South. This team is barely above .500, and yet it feels like they are coming into this game with all the momentum. Stroud finished with 356 passing yards with a touchdown and an interception. He seems to be clicking in the offense and is getting help from unlikely sources. Wide receiver Noah Brown finished last game with 172 yards on seven receptions and backup RB Devin Singletary had 150 yards and a score on 30 carries.
While the Cardinals’ offense took a step forward, the defense hasn’t really shown the same resolve. They allowed 352 yards of offense to the Falcons and are giving up the fifth-most points and 11th-most yards per game. Barring a major setback for Houston, I’m siding with the public and think they should come out victorious.
Picking Cardinals straight-up
Arizona isn’t the worst play you could make if you want to back an underdog this week. The Cardinals looked like they had new life on offense after weeks of Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune being unable to sustain drives and put up points. If Murray can get Rondale Moore involved consistently, he should be able to be productive. The Texans’ defense is allowing the 12th-most yards per game and ninth-most passing yards. Houston is definitely on upset alert, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the momentum Murray brings continue into NRG Stadium.
Should you pick Cardinals in survivor pools?
This feels way too risky. Houston could get trapped in this game, but we can’t really scoff at the fact they beat the Bengals on the road last week. It depends on what other teams you have available, but I’d rather the Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Washington Commanders, Jacksonville Jaguars or Buffalo Bills over Arizona this week.
Verdict
The Cardinals are in a weird spot. They head into Week 11 holding the No. 4 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft but have half a season left and could still put forth a respectable finish if they can go on a win streak. Murray at least looked like the QB they paid him to be in his return, and I don’t get the feeling this team is ready to go belly-up just yet. I think that the Texans are the moneyline pick, but I think that the Cardinals will cover the 5-point spread and keep it close.
Pick: Cardinals +5, Texans moneyline