In fantasy football this season we’ve seen a lot of backfields employ a committee approach. The Baltimore Ravens may be at the extreme of that sentiment as they head into Week 11 on Thursday Night Football vs. the Cincinnati Bengals. This likely wouldn’t have been the case had RB JK Dobbins not gone down with a season-ending injury. But even in Week 1 the Ravens gave at least 15 offensive snaps to four different backs.
That was before the emergence of RB Keaton Mitchell, who has shaken up the fantasy scene late in the season. Mitchell didn’t start to see the field until Week 7 and it was in Week 9 when he broke out for 138 yards and a TD on just nine carries. Mitchell only has 12 carries on the season through the past two games. That’s led to 172 rushing yards and two TDs (or a cool 14.3 yards per carry). No big deal.
Despite Mitchell’s efficiency and production, RB Gus Edwards remains the main back for the Ravens and in fantasy football land. Mitchell had 66 yards on just four touches last week vs. the Cleveland Browns. But Edwards outsnapped both Mitchell and RB Justice Hill. Edwards would go on to finish with 11 carries for 24 yards and a TD, plus a four-yard catch. It was the eighth time Edwards reached double-digit carries in the past nine games. It was also Edwards’ fourth straight game with a TD; he has seven total in that span.
So clearly we have two pretty capable running backs for fantasy football and some tough decisions to make — if you have Edwards, if you have Mitchell, if you have both. Let’s take a look at what to do for TNF vs. the Bengals.
Fantasy football start sit advice: Ravens RBs
In-Game Updates
Edwards touches: 5
Mitchell touches: 2
First quarter — The Ravens marched down the field and Edwards scored in his fifth straight game. Mitchell saw a few snaps but wasn’t in there when the Ravens got into the red zone. Edwards should continue to reap the benefits of goal-line duty.
Gus Edwards
We’ll start with Edwards, who feels like a must-start in all formats at this point. The past two games Mitchell has, again, rushed at a 14.3 YPC clip. Yet, Todd Monken continues to give Edwards more work and the goal-line touches. That is more of a testament to Edwards’ size; he’s more of a bruiser and the game scripts for Baltimore have played into his favor. The Ravens generally play from ahead and need to run the ball to kill clock. They aren’t doing that with QB Lamar Jackson. Mitchell is better in short spurts. So Edwards should continue to get plenty of carries and his TD equity is among the best in fantasy football. To me, Edwards is the mainstay and you should continue to play him regardless of what Mitchell does.
Keaton Mitchell
What Mitchell is doing is pretty remarkable. But is it sustainable? Not really. We should see his yards per carry come back down to earth at some point. It may not be quickly but that’s only because he isn’t seeing heavy touch volume. Still, even if Mitchell gets around 4-5 touches, he’s shown he can make the best of those touches. For Mitchell, it’s the matchup that makes him appealing this week. The Bengals rank 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (136.2). Earlier in the season, Baltimore rushed for 178 yards on 37 carries in a 27-24 win over Cincy. Jackson had 12 carries. Hill ate up 14 touches. Edwards still got to 10 carries. Plus, four backfield touches went to WRs.
So if Edwards and Mitchell split most of that work, it’s 18 additional touches that could be split between the two (or something like that). We should still expect Hill to get some snaps. But Jackson hasn’t reached double-digit rushing attempts in three of the past four games. We could see Jackson’s runs shift to Mitchell and Edwards.
Can you play both Edwards and Mitchell in the same lineup?
All of this is essentially building up to the idea of playing both Edwards AND Mitchell on the same fantasy football team. Let’s say the two backs get around a combined 20-25 touches (receiving targets included). There’s a chance the two combine for over 200 total yards. With what we know about Edwards’ usage in the red zone, we can expect AT LEAST one touchdown between the two. The ceiling being multiple touchdowns. Here’s a look at their totals combined the past two games:
Week 9 vs. SEA — 14 carries, 190 yards, 3 TDs, 1 catch, -4 yards: 37.6 FPTS
Week 10 vs. CLE — 14 carries, 58 yards, 2 TDs, 2 catches, 36 yards: 23.4 FPTS
You could have played both backs on the same team the past two weeks and would have been fine with that outcome. Even last week in a very tough matchup vs. a good Browns defense, the two averaged out to 11.7 FPTS. Those are totals that keep you in your matchup and in position to win. We could see something in between or closer to the ceiling in Week 9 considering the Bengals’ run defense. I feel confident rolling out both Edwards and Mitchell in the same lineup. In fact, I’m doing just that on one of my fantasy football teams (mostly because of bye weeks but still).
