The Monday work day is done. It’s time for Monday Night Football. DraftKings Sportsbook is here to make this special night even more special. Check out the NFL best bets for the Week 11 Monday Night Football matchup. The action kicks off with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Philadelphia Eagles at 8:15 p.m. ET.
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Weekly Specials: Travis Kelce +89 receiving yards and D’Andre Swift +18 receiving yards (+275)
Give me all of the Taylor Swift promo bets! DraftKings couldn’t help themselves. A prop bet for Kelce and a player named Swift is available at DraftKings Sportsbook. This is the phenomenon of synchronicity that famous psychologist Carl Jung wrote about a century ago. Coincidences are not meaningless and random. Coincidences are simply the things that science cannot explain — yet. The bosses would rather not see an advanced dialogue on the existence of ESP, and sports bettors just want the picks. But the Swifties love making connections via dreams or astral projections. Google Taylor Swift and synchronicity. Swift equals clicks, but it’s time for picks. Just know that we’re all connected through Taylor Swift.
It’s Monday Night Football. It’s Taylor Swift in the suite. The “Either T. Kelce or D. Swift to Score 2+ TDs (+275)” bet isn’t a stretch. By the way Swifties, +275 means that if you bet $100 and win, you get your $100 back and $275. Now, you have $375. A $10 bet returns $27.50 (total of $37.50). But judging by the price of a “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” ticket, a $100 if not a $1,000 NFL prop bet is within your discretionary spending. By the way, because everyone wants to know, a $19.84 bet pays $54.56 ($74.40). No doubt the Swiftie Ouija board will find significance in those numbers, too.
It’s stats time. Why will Kelce and Swift exceed the numbers predicted by the odds makers? Kelce has earned over 100 receiving yards in two of the last four games. His last two games have been disappointing, but the Miami game was a Euro contest and Patrick Mahomes had the flu versus the Broncos. As for D’Andre Swift, he has +20 receiving yards in four of his last six games. He’s averaging 25 receiving yards per game over that span. It would be nice to see Swift get more targets, but he is running routes on 40-50% of Philadelphia’s drop backs. This number seems like it could be higher than +18 rec. yards. Is the DraftKings Sportsbook taking it easy on the Swifties? That’s not the case. The Chiefs have only allowed 199 receiving yards to running backs this season. That’s the second-best in the NFL. Still, 18 yards isn’t much for the multi-dimensional running back. One last point about matchups, the Eagles allowed Cowboys TE Jake Fergusson to record 91 receiving yards on seven receptions in their last game on Nov. 5. Kelce is twice the player that Ferguson is, so a “T. Kelce to Have 13+ Receptions (+800)” bet is not unreasonable.
Chiefs -3 (-102)
Dust it off. Take down the worn-out narrative from the top shelf of the guest room closet. It’s been sitting there all year. It’s time for its one use. During Andy Reid’s 31-year career as a head coach and assistant coach, he has a 28-4 record after a regular or postseason bye week. His ATS isn’t quite as astounding, but 22-14 is fairly strong. A 58% win rate is hard to ignore. Clearly, Reid knows how to design the Xs and Os and prepare his team with extra time. Not to mention, the Chiefs are at home on Monday night.
The Super Bowl rematch narrative looms, but not nearly as much as the Taylor Swift talk. It sounds ridiculous, but the Chiefs are more likely to be motivated by Swift than a Super Bowl rematch. The Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII last February. They’re not angry. The Eagles want revenge. Philly will be fired up. The Chiefs’ extra motivation comes from the newfound members of Chiefs Nation. The hopes and dreams of an army of millennials and zoomers rest on the Chiefs’ shoulders. Wins for Kansas City are significant. A win in the standings gets them one game closer to the Super Bowl. It also pleases their rapidly growing and rabid fan base. Last but not least, it increases the popularity of the NFL unlike anything this or any sports league has seen in decades, if not ever. Take for example this NFL Best Bets article on DK Network. The article gets a notable amount of weekly clicks and has a solid SEO score, but this week will likely be record breaking (thanks, Swifties). This is a big regular season game.
The Chiefs cannot cover simply based on narratives. That is true. As strong as the narratives are, there is still a game to be played on the field. Metaphysical bets with physical dollars is not usually a winning proposition. The world is concrete. It is tangible. What do the stats say?
Both teams have the best win-loss record in their respective conferences. The Chiefs have covered the spread in six of their last eight games. They failed to cover at Denver when Mahomes (flu) clearly wasn’t himself. That should be dismissed. The last time they failed to cover at home was the season opening Thursday night game against the upstart Lions. Philadelphia has covered the spread in five of nine games. This is the first time all season that the Eagles are not favored. That’s not surprising given that they have the best record in the NFL. This is truly a matchup of two juggernauts with weapons on both sides of the ball. Every position can be put under the microscope. The opposing offensive and defensive schemes can be broken down and analyzed. However, the difference could be as simple as one team is at home and the other is on the road. The Chiefs only need a field goal to cover. Patrick Mahomes at home is too appealing. If the Chiefs have the ball last in what should be a close game, then they should cover.
Under 45.5
This is a blind trend pick. Betting the under has been a money making play every week. The under bet is hitting at a 61% clip. NFL Prime-time games are even more skewed. Prime-time games have become low scoring affairs over the last several seasons (67% to the under), and it has continued in 2023 (73%). The Chiefs have gone under the projected total in seven of their nine games.
Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
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All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
