The Golden State Warriors will attempt to get some revenge when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves Tuesday as part of the NBA’s In-Season Tournament. The Warriors lost to the Timberwolves Sunday, and the 116-110 score doesn’t do Minnesota justice.
To complicate matters for the Warriors Tuesday, star point guard Stephen Curry is out due to a knee sprain. Curry is not expected to miss significant time but Golden State can’t afford to have its star sidelined for too long.
The Warriors were initially 2-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, but the line is now Timberwolves -2.5 after Curry’s injury. Is this movement overstated?
Is line movement to T-Wolves overstated?
Case for backing the Warriors
Despite scoring 30.7 points per game, Curry is actually a net negative this year at -0.3. Of course, this is because he plays with a variety of different players and those combinations haven’t quite been able to jell yet. The Warriors have a 2.3 net rating overall as a team, which suggests losing Curry might actually benefit the group. If you’re buying the numbers, you can take Golden State as a home underdog.
Case for backing the Timberwolves
The Timberwolves have been the best defensive team in the league, sporting the top defensive rating so far. That’s a far cry from a season ago, where the team would score a ton of points but fail to stop anyone. They also have a net rating of 9.1, well above Golden State’s rating.
The Timberwolves led by a large margin Sunday for most of the game, and have been on fire to start this season. Even with Curry out, it’s hard to see Minnesota taking its foot off the gas or overlooking this Warriors team.
Verdict
Curry shouldn’t move the line by 4.5 points if you believe the advanced analytics. However, this is also about Minnesota’s defense. The Warriors at home are usually automatic, but they’ve slipped up a bit to start this season. The Timberwolves are hard to beat right now and should be backed, even as the favorite.