Week 9 was another .500 record in the Prop Bet department, and now that we are halfway through the NFL season, we should have a much better idea of how things will go down the second half of the year. Week 10 is upon us, and the Bears got us started in an uninspiring way with a 16-13 win over Carolina on Thursday night. Below are some of my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for this weekend’s action.
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OVER Picks
TE T.J. Hockenson Over 49.5 Rec Yds (-115)
This number seems oddly low to me, with Hockenson having reached this total in each of his last five games, and seven of the Vikings nine games this season. In his first game with Joshua Dobbs, Hockenson quickly became his favorite target, as he was targeted 12 times. Over the last three weeks, only one player has been targeted more than the Vikings TE (Tyreek Hill). He has 33 targets over his last three games, and if he sees the ball coming his way to him that many times again on Sunday, this total should hit with ease.
WR CeeDee Lamb Over 77.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Lamb has been on fire lately, with at least 117 receiving yards in each of his last three games. Over the past two weeks, no player has been targeted more, as Lamb has a whopping 30 targets in two games. The next closest to Lamb is Garrett Wilson, with 26. Lamb and the Cowboys should have a field day on Sunday, as they are listed as 17.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook.
QB Taysom Hill Over 23.5 Rush Yds (-130)
Hill seems to be becoming a bigger part of this offense every week, as last week, he led the Saints in rush attempts. It has been evident over the last two weeks that Hill is becoming a staple of this offense, as he had nine carries in Week 8 and 11 in Week 9. He cleared this total with ease in each of the last two weeks, combining for 115 rush yards over that time. In the first seven weeks of the season, Hill wasn’t given nearly as many touches to hit a total like this, as he only averaged 4.14 rush attempts per game.
UNDER Picks
K Chad Ryland Under 1.5 FG Made (-140)
Out of every kicker who attempted at least five field goals this season, Ryaland has the second-lowest number of field goals made, with 10. He only trails Dolphins K Jason Sanders with seven. Over his nine games this year, he has only gone over this total twice. Hopefully, the streak continues for Ryland, and he goes under for the eighth time this season.
WR Quentin Johnston Under 30.5 Rec Yds (-110)
Johnston has served as the replacement for Mike Williams, who has been out with injury since Week 4. Even so, Johnston has failed to take advantage of the opportunity, as he’s only gone over this total in one game this season. In that game, he was targeted six times, his highest of the season. In every other game, the most targeted he received is three. If Johnston has another game with three or fewer targets, I feel confident the under will hit here.
WR Romeo Doubs Under 36.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Doubs has struggled the past month, as he has yet to crack this total in each of his last four games. This season, Doubs has only gone over this total twice in eight attempts. A road game in Pittsburgh is never what you want to see on the schedule when you’re looking for a bounce-back week, but that will be the challenge for Jordan Love and Doubs this week. This feels like a game where Love and the Packers’ offense struggle, and ultimately, the Steelers get the win.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
