The Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers face off in primetime on Thursday Night Football to start Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season. While this is a matchup with zero playoff implications, it does have a big impact on the 2024 NFL Draft order. At 2-7, the Bears sit in the fourth pick slot while the Panthers, whose pick will go to Chicago, has the No. 2 overall pick as of now. It creates an interesting dynamic of whether or not the Bears should want to win this game. Anyway, we’ll try to consider some of this while considering the betting splits on DraftKings Sportsbook for the matchup. Let’s take a look.
Thursday Night Football betting splits
Panthers vs. Bears
Spread: Bears -3.5
Chicago is favored by over a field goal at home on TNF in the short week. QB Tyson Bagent will start again with Justin Fields not ready to return from injury. The Bears are also expected to be without RB Khalil Herbert, who is questionable to play but not going to be activated off IR in Week 10. Bagent struggled last week with turnovers but had the offense moving in the right direction most of a 24-17 loss to the Saints.
As for the Panthers, they’re 1-1 since their bye in Week 7. Last week, Carolina fell 27-13 to the Colts in another rough outing for rookie QB Bryce Young, who turned the ball over three times. The Panthers’ run game was strong, averaging close to 5.0 yards per carry between Young and RBs Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders. That could be the key to victory on TNF vs. the Bears — running and controlling the clock. Whoever makes the fewest mistakes should come out on top between Bagent and Young.
The public believes that player will be Bagent with 68% of the handle and 65% of the bets on Chicago to cover the spread of 3.5 points. It’s really a toss up in my eyes. Neither team is good but you usually look to the home team on the short week. The Bears coughed away a win against a decent New Orleans team. Carolina hasn’t come close to covering this type of spread on the road this season. Still, if you’re the Panthers and you’re not playing for draft position, you don’t want the opponent benefitting off your loss two-fold. If that’s any motivation, maybe the Panthers come out on top this week.
Over/Under: 38.5 points
Most of these TNF games are turning up high scoring. Though, last week we saw a snoozefest between the Steelers and Titans. That was featuring two bad QBs, bad offenses and better defense. This week, we have similar poor QB play but with more chaos involved. Young and Bagent could trade turnovers and set up both offenses with good field position. There are also some playmakers on both sides with DJ Moore in a revenge spot and Adam Thielen and Miles Sanders on Carolina.
Looking at the defenses, the Bears’ defense has had to do a lot of heavy lifting this season. Chicago’s defense hasn’t been all that bad in spots like this. Since getting torched in their first four games, the Bears are allowing 21 points per game the past five games. That’s against better offenses mostly. So Chicago should be able to contain the Panthers’ offense.
Most of the public is on the under with 65% of the handle and 62% of the bets. This feels like one of those TNF games that will be super ugly and nobody wins really. Unless you bet the under.
Moneyline: CHI -166, CAR +140
Again, the Bears are getting a lot of the love on the moneyline at home. We’re seeing 76% of the handle and 72% of the bets on Chicago to win tonight. It makes the most sense. The Bears have been competitive the past five weeks and really should have a few more wins if it weren’t for mental lapses and turnovers. If Bagent can take care of the ball just a little better, Chicago shouldn’t have much issue getting by Carolina. It may be ugly and low-scoring but the ML feels better than taking the Bears on that 3.5-point spread.