We’re getting into crunch time in the college football season. CFP rankings are out, and the outlook on this season is taking form. We have some big-time games on tap on Saturday, let’s try and cash some tickets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Make sure that you are in our DK Network betting group. A lot of these picks are released earlier in the week, and you can find them here.
My 2023 college football betting record entering Week 10 is 43-30-1 (+15.61-units).
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For a more in-depth breakdown of this weekend’s college football and NFL betting cards, be sure to check out the Unreasonable Odds podcast.
Notre Dame at Clemson (Saturday 12:00 pm ET)
ND -3 (-112) — 2.5-units
I grabbed the opener on this game at -3, and put it out on Twitter at -3.5 when it opened there on DK. I tweeted out about buying off that one once we realized this would come back down to -3 (and even touched 2.5 at times). But laying three with the Irish has been widely available this week, and still there in the market.
The number on this game, along with the lack of movement, tells us this is going to be a very public play. Perhaps one of those “trap” plays. A big part of my success this season in CFB has been playing these sharp home dogs — Florida over Tennessee, NCST over Clemson last week, and even some losers like Duke over Notre Dame that were awful beats.
Long way of saying, I understand what I’m doing here in going with an extremely public road favorite. Clemson is just not a team I can back right now for a number of reasons. The reason the market is holding strong here is because Clemson has been better at home. But the only game they were home dogs they blew it against FSU, and that was back when their season still had hope. Notre Dame has also struggled at times on the road, like with Duke and Louisville — but those are just better teams than Clemson.
The Tigers just lost a pair of road games as favorites at Miami and NC State. Dabo Swinney has been arguing with radio callers this past week about the state of his job. His team is down key players on both sides of the ball, and Will Shipley (Clemson’s most dynamic offensive weapon) may miss this game with a concussion.
On the other side, the Irish has the pieces up front to gash Clemson. The Tigers can get pounded on the ground, and ND has the offensive line and ball carriers to exploit that. Going with the eye test here over what the market is trying to tell us and saying that Clemson doesn’t have any fight left.
Washington at USC (Saturday 7:30 pm ET)
OVER 75.5 (-115) — 1.5-units
Here’s another one that I’m altering my play a little bit on this game, so hopefully you’re following along throughout the week on Twitter and in our Betting Group. I initially put out the Huskies -3, and while I still lean that way, I bought off on some USC +3.5. As bad as USC has been lately (probably should’ve lost to Cal last week), Washington has been almost as bad (scraping by Arizona State and Stanford the last two weeks).
What I’m most confident in for this game is these offenses playing very well, and it helps that both defenses kind of stink too. We know what Caleb Williams and Michael Penix Jr. are capable of in terms of putting up monster numbers, but let’s just look at last week’s opponent for USC as a measuring stick. Cal isn’t a very good team, but put up 49 on USC, while giving up 50. Washington had a 59-32 win over that same team last month.
Again, I think the Huskies are the better team because they are slightly better on defense. But backing points is ultimately the call I’m comfortable with in this game. I was able to snatch up the 71.5 opener, but didn’t get it into the betting group on time. But we’ve done really well on totals that move a few points this season (USC/Colorado over, Penn State/Ohio State under, Oregon/Utah under), and think this should be another one of those spots where all numbers cash.
LSU at Alabama (Saturday 7:45 pm ET)
I’ve spun quite a web when it comes to this game. Back in July I put out some futures and lookahead plays, mostly backing LSU and fading ‘Bama. I have Alabama to miss the CFP (-165) along with plays on LSU +7.5 in this game, LSU O9.5 wins (which loses if they lose this game) and LSU (+500) in the SEC.
All that to say, I have to do some hedging on the Crimson Tide in this game, especially since I like them in the game. If you tailed any of my card over the summer, stay tuned for those updates on Twitter. But for the rest of you, those that have futures with me and those that are uninvested, here’s my favorite play on the game.
Alabama Team Total OVER 31.5 (-110) — 2.5-units
This LSU defense is just not good, and any time they play against a decent offense (particularly on the road) we see that play out. Outside of giving up 18 to a bad Auburn team in a home game, here are the Tigers’ points allowed in their last three SEC games— 39 at Missouri, 55 at Ole Miss and 31 at home to Arkansas. Let’s also remember LSU began the season by allowing 45 to FSU on a neutral field.
After a shaky start to the season, the Tide have started to figure things out. Alabama hung 34 on Tennessee in their last game, and have had they bye (as has LSU) to work on breaking this defense. As we discussed on the podcast this week, LSU will be without its top two cornerbacks, which plays right into ‘Bama’s strength. Jalen Milroe throws a terrific deep ball, and I feel that will lead to some really big plays for the Crimson Tide on offense. If you’re in a state with CFB player props, Milroe’s passing yardage is one to look at.
Of course, we also have some revenge here. ‘Bama’s CFP hopes went down the drain in a one-point loss at LSU last season. Nick Saban has historically coached well against Brian Kelly, and I expect him to have some good looks in the game plan to expose this defense.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
