Update: Bam Adebayo, who was listed as questionable earlier in the day with a hip injury, has been ruled out for tonight’s contest. The line has now moved to Bucks -7.5 and the total is now 225.5. We’ll still take the under on the total, and the additional points might actually be a benefit for Miami but a spread pick might be worth staying away from. Jimmy Butler is playing, so Heat bettors can still feel some confidence there.
The Miami Heat (1-2) will travel to face off with the Milwaukee Bucks (1-1) Monday. Tipoff from Fiserv Forum is set for 8 p.m. ET. This is a rematch of the Eastern Conference playoff series in the first round last year where the No. 8 Heat beat the No. 1 Bucks 4-1. The Bucks are a bit different as they were a part of the biggest trade in the offseason when they acquired Damian Lillard.
Miami has Josh Richardson out with a foot injury and Caleb Martin is out with a knee injury. The Bucks are dealing with no notable injuries but could rest their guys on the second night of a back-to-back set. Khris Middleton, who missed Sunday’s game, is set to play tonight.
The Bucks are 5.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook and the point total sits at 224. On the moneyline, the Bucks are -205 while the Heat are +170.
Heat vs. Bucks, 8 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Heat +5.5
Milwaukee is 0-2 ATS this season and I think they continue to have some struggles on Monday. The Heat were decent against the spread on the road last season. Jimmy Butler sat out of Miami’s last matchup, but he will be back on Monday with some extra rest. It’s still early in the season, but Miami is sitting at 1-2 and needs to make a statement. Look for the Heat to keep this contest close and potentially even win outright.
Over/Under: Under 224
Both of these teams have the ability to play good defense. Milwaukee scares you a little bit, but Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The under cashed in 50.5% of their games last season, so they were about even. I think tonight is a low-scoring game. The only way the Heat have a chance is to get after it on the defensive side of the court. The combined over/under record of these teams is 2-3 this season. Take the under tonight.
