GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough and guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 8.
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Stacks
Game Stack: Carolina Panthers vs Houston Texans
CJ Stroud ($6,200) — Chuba Hubbard ($4,800) — Nico Collins ($5,900) — Tank Dell ($4,900)
The Texans come into this game as three-point favorites but the spread has stayed within a field goal all week, suggesting we could get a close game which would likely make this a good spot for some big fantasy days to transpire.
The Panthers have struggled mightily in 2023 but have done some things well. In Week 6, they managed to rush for over 100 yards against the Dolphins and most of that came from Chuba Hubbard, who averaged 4.68 yards per carry. Miles Sanders ($4,900) is back this week but there is certainly reason for the team to keep giving Hubbard more work as he’s been the more efficient back. He’ll face off against a Houston defense that ranks just 21st in defensive DVOA and allowed five touchdowns to opposing RBs through the first few weeks.
If the Panthers can succeed on the ground, that will likely mean the Texans will look to CJ Stroud to save them in the passing game. Stroud has already produced three games with 20 or more DKFP and plays in a Texans offense that ranks 10th in plays ran per game. On the other side, Carolina may not be giving up a ton of passing yards but they still rank 26th in yards per pass attempt against and 27th in yards per play against. The Texans don’t rush well as a team, however. (3.2 yards per carry — 31st in league). Stroud will likely have to air it out in this situation and that should help his two primary receivers to produce big days as well.
Both Nico Collins and Tank Dell have been fantasy gold mines when priced under $6K this season. Collins has been the big play threat (18.9 yards per reception) and has already gone for 30+ DKFP twice when priced under $5.5K. Dell was starting to look like the primary target in this offense before he got hurt and has had two games with 20+ DKFP. Using both with Stroud to complete a game stack gives us a super viable and affordable threesome — that we can use with Hubbard as our comeback play — that will afford us lots of flexibility.
Quarterback: Jordan Love ($5,700), Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Love hasn’t had a great stretch lately, producing under 20.0 DKFP in each of his last three starts. However, while the Packers’ offense has looked inept at times, it’s worth keeping in mind for fantasy purposes that Love is both a solid rushing QB and has big play options at RB with Aaron Jones ($6,400 – questionable) and WR with Christian Watson ($5,100) — both of whom can boost his totals on a single play.
The Vikings are also still a healthy matchup. Overall, they have allowed multiple passing TDs in three games this season and have allowed three rushing TDs to opposing QBs as well. The high blitz rate that the Vikings use on defense (57.8%, first in the league) often leads to more QB runs as well. Love can be used in a cheap stack with Watson or on his own this week if looking for a solo QB under $6K.
Running Back
Top End: Breece Hall ($5,900), New York Jets vs New York Giants
Coming into this game, it’s hard to believe that we can still get Hall at under $6K. Hall leads the league in yards per carry (6.5) and over the last two games, Hall has now out-touched Dalvin Cook, 34 to 9, as a rusher.
This game has a low total (O/U 36.0) but the Jets are sitting as three-point favorites and the Giants rank bottom five in missed tackles and are one of the worst teams against opposing RBs (8 rushing TDs). Even if you believe the Giants will show more this week, it’s still hard to see them shutting down or keeping Hall out of the endzone. He projects as a great value to build around, regardless of ownership.
Low End: Emari Demercado ($4,800), Arizona Cardinals vs Baltimore Ravens
The Cardinals’ rushing game has a tough matchup this week and while matchups are important, price and usage deserve equal footing when sorting fantasy picks. Demercado took over as the primary RB for the Cardinals last week, playing on 79% of the snaps and taking a 54% share of the carries. He also had a 64% route rate and put up a 4-17 (5 targets) line as a receiver.
The PPR aspect of this play is important as Demercado may not have much room as a runner but could certainly produce through volume in the passing game. The Ravens are in a bit of a letdown spot as well (traveling West after a big game) and Demercado will likely handle some red zone carries if the Cardinals offense gets out to a fast start. He’s an all-around solid value this week with sneaky potential at under $5K.
Wide Receiver
Top End: DK Metcalf ($6,800), Seattle Seahawks vs. Cleveland Browns
Metcalf was unfortunately a late scratch last week but it was far better for his long-term prospects than him playing a few snaps, ruining fantasy lineups, and potentially getting more injured. Now that he’s had a week of rest, he has already taken in two full practices and is off the injury report for Week 8. That’s great news as Seattle does have an injury situation to monitor with Tyler Lockett (hamstring) who missed two full practices to start the week.
Lockett being limited or out would obviously boost Metcalf’s potential usage and give him a better opportunity to produce a big game. The Browns are a great defense but there have been some cracks showing. They ceded 38 points last week to the Colts’ backup QB and their secondary allowed 13.0 yards per attempt and two touchdowns. With sentiment around Metcalf quite low after his injury and in a perceived poor matchup, this makes for a great spot to buy-in at low ownership on one of the most explosive WRs in the league.
Top Value: Tee Higgins ($5,900), Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers
Higgins is another great buy-low candidate. The Bengals WR has started slow and has posted under 25 receiving yards in four of five starts this season. Higgins is a multi-time 1,000 yard-plus receiver and certainly proved back in Week 2 (8-89-2 against Baltimore) that when healthy, he can still dominate primary coverage.
What’s important to note here is that Higgins (ribs) is fully off the injury report after the Bengals bye and has been practicing in full. This is a big change from the last few Bengals’ games and a good sign that we’ll see the old Higgins this week. The 49ers got cooked in the passing game last week and have allowed the fourth most receptions to opposing WRs this year.
Tight End: Trey McBride ($2,800), Arizona Cardinals vs Baltimore Ravens
With Zach Ertz now on injured reserve, Trey McBride is pretty much the clear-cut number one passing option at TE for the Cardinals. Last week he took a 19% target share and posted a 51% route rate while also seeing a season-high six targets. McBride is far more athletic than Ertz is at this point in his career and there’s a very good chance he posts a few bigger plays as his target share and usage increases.
The matchup would be slightly worrisome (the Ravens have allowed zero TD passes and the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing TEs) IF McBride wasn’t so cheap. At just $2.8K, McBride’s main attraction is that he gives us flexibility at other positions. Considering his solid usage last week, a few catches looks like a near guarantee and there is upside for more given his superior athletic traits.
Defense/Special Teams: Cincinnati Bengals ($2,200) at San Francisco 49ers
The Bengals’ defense has really started to pick things up after a slow start. They limited the Seahawks to just 14 points back in Week 6 (making a last-minute stand in the red zone) and have averaged four sacks and two turnovers per game across the last four games.
Obviously, the Bengals are priced down this week due to the matchup against the 49ers, who are second in offensive DVOA but the matchup doesn’t look as bad as it did at the start of the week. Brock Purdy (concussion) is questionable to start and the 49ers struggled late against the Vikings without Deebo Samuel. Ultimately, the Bengals have played too well of late to ignore this price. They’ll make for a better play if Purdy sits (and Sam Darnold plays) but even if Purdy plays their turnover rate and sack rate make them a good value at well under $2.5K
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
