And just like that… we’ve got a whole new series! After a walk-off win in Game 3 and a stunning eighth-inning rally in Game 4, the Diamondbacks leveled their series against the Phillies heading into Saturday’s Game 5. While it definitely gets overused in baseball at this time of year, the term “pivotal” clearly applies here as whichever team claims the victory is just one win from the World Series as the series shifts back to Philadelphia for the final two games of the series.
After winning with a bullpen day Friday, Arizona gives the ball to Zac Gallen ($11,600), who will go up against Zack Wheeler ($12,000) in a rematch of the Zac(k) attack matchup from Game 1. The Phillies won that game, 5-3, as part of their six straight wins at Citizens Bank Park this postseason. On the road, though, they have gone just 1-3 after losing the last two games in this series.
Who will head to Philly with a series lead and how should you build your Showdown lineup on DraftKings? Let’s take a look.
Set your DraftKings Showdown lineups here: MLB Showdown $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st] (PHI vs ARI)
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Zack Wheeler ($18,000 CP) – The two starting pitchers on this slate are both pricey and both come with good upside, but of the two, Wheeler is my preferred building block as a Captain’s Pick in Game 5. Wheeler has a great playoff track record and more strikeout potential, which gives him a higher ceiling. Over the past two postseasons, Wheeler has made nine starts for the Phillies and gone 3-3 with a 2.63 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 54 2⁄3 innings. He has gone at least six innings in each of his three starts this postseason, allowing just five earned runs total (2.37 ERA, 2.05 FIP) with 26 strikeouts in 19 innings.
In Game 1, Wheeler had eight strikeouts in six innings to get the win and 27.7 DKFP. He has over 27 DKFP in all three of his postseason starts and has truly been an ace for the Phillies. His one playoff start on the road this year did not result in a win, but it was still a solid start with a postseason career-high of 10 strikeouts against a strong Atlanta lineup. Even though Gallen has been very effective at home, Wheeler still has a slight edge because Gallen’s K/9 this postseason is just 6.61, in comparison with Wheeler’s impressive 12.32 K/9 this year in the playoffs.
Kyle Schwarber ($12,300 CP) – Schwarber is surprisingly affordable as a Captain’s Pick in Game 5, and it’s even barely possible to include both starting pitchers as UTIL plays with a bargain play and Schwarber as Captain. Throughout his career, Schwarber has been a proven playoff performer, dating back to his postseason runs with the Red Sox and the Cubs. In 62 postseason games, he has a .241 playoff career batting average with 19 homers and a .383 wOBA. He started these playoffs a little slow but has homered four times in the four games in this series, starting with a leadoff homer off of Gallen in Game 1. During this series, he has averaged 24.25 DKFP per contest.
Shwarber is very boom-or-bust but has shown a tendency to come up clutch and brings a very high ceiling if he takes Gallen or another Dbacks pitcher deep. Of the 22 homers Gallen allowed this season, 14 were to lefties, who posted a .302 wOBA against him, so this looks like a spot to lean into the Phillies’ left-handed hitters.
UTIL Plays
Bryce Harper ($9,000) – Harper has four homers in the postseason and is another left-handed bat to build around along with Schwarber. He has walked 12 times in 10 games but also collected seven extra-base hits. He came up empty on Friday night but should be set to bounce back in this spot against Gallen. In their previous regular-season meetings, Harper has gone 6-for-14 (.429) with a double and a home run. He also homered off Gallen in Game 1 as part of a 2-for-3 game that earned him 23 DKFP.
Ketel Marte ($8,000) – Marte had multiple hits for the third straight game on Friday night, going 2-for-4 with a walk and scoring two runs on his way to 12 DKFP. He has hit safely in every one of his nine playoff games this season, going 15-for-39 (.385) with four doubles, two homers and a stolen base. He has averaged 10.9 DKFP per game in the playoffs and brings a great ceiling from his spot high in the Diamondbacks’ batting order.
Gabriel Moreno ($6,000) – Moreno moved up to the third spot in the batting order for the past two games and continues to bring great value. He went 2-for-3 with two walks and 14 DKFP in Game 4 and is now 8-for-30 (.267) with three homers during the postseason. He has averaged 9.7 DKFP per start and produced at least 14 DKFP four times in Arizona’s playoff run. The 23-year-old catcher has established himself as a key part of the Diamondbacks youth movement, and he’s a great way to save some salary and still get good upside. He and Marte are close enough in Arizon’s batting order to offer a strong correlation as well.
Fades
Nick Castellanos ($8,400) – Since I’m leaning into Phillies’ lefties, I’m passing on Castellanos in this matchup. Castellanos has gone 0-for-9 with a walk in the Phillies’ last three games. His splits indicate he is typically a much stronger play at home and against left-handed pitching. During the regular season, he had a .240 batting average with a .289 wOBA on the road compared to a .304 average and .380 wOBA at home. Castellanos always brings power potential, but since this game is on the road against a righty, there are other options around this price point that I think are much better plays.
Set your DraftKings Showdown lineups here: MLB Showdown $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st] (PHI vs ARI)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
