After stringing together a few good weeks in the NFL, I got smoked last week with some poor reads. Ended the week strong hitting on Dallas, but got off to a poor start in Week 7 with New Orleans. I’ll move forward with a teaser, a side and a total that I like this week. Here’s what I like for bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
My 2023 NFL betting record entering Week 7 is 35-32-2 (-6.175-units).
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Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears
Michael Mayer OVER 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110) — 1.5-units
Mayer has seen his snaps and usage going up over the past two weeks, and enters a really good matchup and situation here to attack his very modest prop. After playing about half the snaps in the first four games, Meyer played two-thirds of the snaps in Week 5, and then followed it up with 81% in Week 6.
The extra playing time resulted in two grabs for 39 yards against the Packers, and then an impressive 5-75-0 line on six targets against the Patriots. Now Mayer gets a matchup against a Chicago defense allowing 53 yards per game to the TE position, and Vegas rolling out a backup QB should help earn some extra targets.
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts
UNDER 40.5 (-110) — 1-unit
The Browns have been elite on defense in virtually all phases, which is something the Colts haven’t seen yet. With Anthony Richardson out, Indy’s offense obviously becomes much less explosive. Jonathan Taylor has provided nothing since his return, and moving the ball through the air should be a struggle here for Gardner Minshew.
On the other side of the ball, we’re either going to get PJ Walker, or a rusty Deshaun Watson playing with a bad throwing shoulder. Either way, this offense should remain well below average. Going on the road to face a Colts defense that shouldn’t allow many big plays, I expect the Browns to wind up in another grinder here.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (MNF)
6-Point Teaser: BUF -2.5/SF -1 (-120) — 1-unit
6-Point Teaser: BUF -1.5/SF -0.5 (-120) — 1-unit (Sunday add)
Was waiting to get Buffalo down under -9 so that we could go this route, and as of Friday afternoon we have the Bills sitting at -8.5. That allows us to cross all the key numbers and get to -2.5, while the touchdown-favorite Niners come all the way down to -1.
Little dicey here going with a couple of road favorites, but I do trust the spots. The Patriots take sharp money week after week, and it continues to prove to be the wrong side. This team gets out to awful starts, and doesn’t have the tools to come back in games. The Bills should get out of their funk offensively in this one given the soft matchup. On the other side of the ball, expect Buffalo’s pass rushers to feast.
Niners are off a bad loss in Cleveland. Plenty of chances to win, even with many of their top players going down to injuries in-game. I trust they’ll have a couple of those key guys active in this one, in what sets up as a cushy spot in Minnesota. The Vikings have been dreadful at home (0-3 SU/ATS), and come off a win over the lowly Bears on the road. Not an ideal spot to get a pissed off Niners team on a long week.
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (SNF)
Eagles ML (-130) — 2-units
This spot reminds me a lot of when Miami was a public dog going into Buffalo and wound up getting spanked. I don’t know if we’ll get quite those results, but the Eagles are being slept on here.
Philly comes off a head-scratching loss to the Jets, but returns home after two road games to a primetime matchup. While the Dolphins have all the fancy weapons in their high-flying offense, the offensive line has its issues. Philly can dominate up front and get a ton of pressure on the quarterback. Miami also has some problems on defense, which I would expect exposed by Philly on offense just a week after being held in check.
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*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
