GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough and guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 7.
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Stacks
Game Stack: Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos
Jordan Love ($5,400) — Christian Watson ($5,600) — Romeo Doubs ($4,900) — Javonte Williams ($5,400)
The Packers-Broncos game has one of the highest totals on the board for Week 7 (O/U 45.0) and features two defenses that rate in the bottom half of the league in overall DVOA (Packers —21st; Broncos 32nd). The Packers’ passing offense, while rocky in spots, should be in a great spot to produce for fantasy.
Jordan Love continues to lead the league in average depth of target (9.8) and now has his best WR back in the fold, Christian Watson (hamstring), for the second game in a row. Week 5 wasn’t great for the Packers as a whole but exemplified perfectly how Watson can generate points for fantasy (both for himself and his QB) in an instant when he took a broken play 77 yards and came within a few feet of scoring. While you can credit the Raiders for keeping Watson out of the endzone, the Broncos (last in tackling efficiency and PFF coverage grade) likely won’t make that play. Given the Packers’ issues on defense and the fact that Jordan Love (21.8 yards rushing, two rushing TDs) has shown good upside as a runner, using this Green Bay stack for just $11K total almost seems unfair.
Taking it a step further — adding Romeo Doubs in for a Green Bay triple stack makes plenty of sense here as well. The prices for all three are low and the Green Bay defense figures to allow some points in this spot given its issues defending the run. Doubs, despite coming off his worst game of the year (1-4) went for 95 yards just two weeks ago and has a solid 24% air yards share on the season.
In regards to how to play the Broncos on the other side, this should be a spot for Javonte Williams to get things going. Williams had arguably his best game of the season against the Chiefs going for 5.2 yards per carry. While the loss of passing down work is troubling, his workload should ramp up after a long rest, and he’ll be in a great spot to produce off of rushing alone against a Packers defense that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing RBs this year.
Quarterback: Desmond Ridder ($5,200), Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons’ run game has been figured out. Teams playing Atlanta the last two weeks have done well at stuffing the box, spying runs to the outside, and keeping rookie Bijan Robinson ($5,800) under 4.0 yards per carry. In essence, teams are daring Atlanta to beat them with Desmond Ridder and the passing game, which has worked out poorly for Atlanta in a win-loss scenario (1-3 in the last four games) but great for Ridder for fantasy purposes.
The Falcons have now thrown the ball an average of 38.3 times per game over their last four starts and seem very unlikely to go away from this trend this week against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has allowed just 3.7 yards per rush on the season (10th in the NFL), and teams playing them? They have averaged well over 36.0 pass attempts per game. All things point to Ridder continuing to have to drop back a ton in this game and, with his rushing upside unlocking more lately (12.5 yards per game, two rushing TDs), he’ll once again be a great low-price QB to use for DFS.
Running Back
Top End: Jonathan Taylor ($6,500), Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns
Despite the tough defensive matchup for Taylor, on paper, the Colts are still just +3.0 home underdogs and may be able to move the ball on the ground against the Browns, who allowed 4.3 yards per carry and two touchdowns last week to Jordan Mason and Christian McCaffrey.
Taylor has looked sluggish to start but the Colts did up his snap share and carry percentage last week as they continued his move to take over the backfield. While targeting any RB currently involved in a timeshare is risky when building DFS lineups, the upside with Taylor should only continue to grow and I’d expect the Colts to try to push him early and often in this game to take the pressure off Gardner Minshew ($5,200) — who threw three INTs last week. If you want leverage over what could be a popular D/ST pick in the Browns and a low-owned RB with good upside, Taylor makes for a nice big-field target in Week 7.
Low End: Jaylen Warren ($5,000), Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams
Warren has been the far more efficient back for the Steelers over the last two seasons. He’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry and 7.8 yards per reception since the start of 2022, which both top starter Najee Harris ($5,200) by a lot. While we can pine and lament the fact the Steelers don’t see this (and keep giving Harris carries), it does create a nice boom-or-bust scenario where Warren continues to be lower-owned in bigger field tournaments but maintains his upside and potential for a big day.
The Rams make for a great opponent to target Warren with as well. Pat Freiermuth (hamstring) now looks like he’ll be sitting and that should lead to more targets for Warren, who has caught at least three passes in every game this year. Los Angeles doesn’t have a deep LB crew and while they haven’t allowed a receiving TD to an RB yet in 2023, they did allow D’Andre Swift a season-best 38 yards receiving in Week 5. Warren’s a good boom/bust type RB to target in Week 7.
Wide Receiver
Top End: DK Metcalf ($6,800 – questionable), Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Seahawks moved the ball well last week, accumulating 323 passing yards but only managing 14 points as the Bengals defense stood tall in the red zone. That likely won’t be the case this week against the Cardinals, whose passing defense has cratered since Week 1, allowing four passing TDs over their last two games and three in Week 5 to the Bengals alone.
Metcalf is questionable (hip) but if he does suit up, he will be in a special spot and ready to break out for one of his signature, slate-breaking kind of performances. Despite the inefficient Week 6 game, the Seahawks’ leading WR has a massive 14.73 aDOT and 38% air yards share on the season and may not need to be an every-down player to go off against a weak secondary. The questionable tag is worth watching but it could also lead to lower ownership in bigger field tournaments, which would make him a great leverage target as RB Kenneth Walker ($7,000) will likely be very high-owned this week.
Top Value: Darius Slayton ($3,700), New York Giants vs Washington Commanders
Slayton doesn’t get talked up much but it’s worth mentioning that he has now gone for 50 or more yards in 11 of the last 20 games for the Giants — in games where he’s played significant snaps. Two of those games were this season (one last week with a backup QB) and he enters this week having averaged at least 17.0 yards per reception in three of five games in 2023.
While he doesn’t produce like a traditional WR1 — thanks to the Giants’ pathetic offensive efficiency — Slayton is still the Giants best playmaker at WR and takes on a Commanders team that ranks 26th in yards per pass attempt and has been destroyed by opposing teams’ WR1s (DJ Moore 8-230-3; Drake London 9-125). Slayton went for six receptions and 90 yards against Washington in Week 13 last year — his second-highest receiving total of 2022 — and should be in a great spot to produce again (regardless of who starts at QB for New York). He makes for a solid upside target at under $4K.
Tight End: Mark Andrews ($5,700), Baltimore Ravens vs. Detroit Lions
This doesn’t feel like the week to get tricky at TE. While we do have some intriguing lower-priced options, we also have two of the highest usage and most consistent producers at TE in the league on the main slate in Andrews and Travis Kelce ($8,000).
While Kelce may have the power of Swift Nation behind him, Andrews comes in an astounding $2.3K cheaper and in a better matchup on paper. Baltimore’s TE has now topped 65 yards in three straight games and had a juicy air yards share of 37% last week. As mentioned above, the matchup with Detroit is solid as they are without their starting safety C. J. Gardner-Johnson and have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing TEs. All signs point to Andrews being a great value at under $6K for Week 7.
Defense/Special Teams: Baltimore Ravens ($2,500) vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions have been an efficient offense but there are a couple of warning signals to take note of in Week 7. They will be without their hammer in the backfield in David Montgomery (ribs) and likely trying to replace him with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring – questionable) who isn’t built for an every-down role but may be forced into one this week.
They are also facing a Ravens’ defense that is solid against the run (4.0 yards per carry against) and currently ranked 2nd in overall defensive DVOA. You also have a situation where we get a traditional dome QB in Jared Goff (3 INTs in the last four games) playing outdoors in potentially windy conditions. The Ravens have averaged four sacks per game and 9.2 DKFP through six weeks, despite having a couple of tough matchups already. They make for an excellent target this week in big-field GPPs and will be in good shape to slow down this Detroit train that is coming in without one of their best players on offense.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
