We’ve got a pair of pivotal contests on tap for this evening. Game 3 of the NLCS gets going just past 5:00 p.m. ET in Arizona, while Game 4 of the ALCS gets underway in Texas around 8:00 p.m. ET. So, that’s pretty much your whole night right there, isn’t it?
Here are a couple of my favorite bets on the diamond on Thursday.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Ranger Suarez Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (-115)
Suarez was the unsung hero of the Phillies’ NLDS victory over the Braves, allowing just a single earned run over 8.2 innings of work. His leash was incredibly short in Game 1 of that series, with the veteran LHP lasting only 3.2 scoreless innings; yet Suarez was even more clutch in Game 4, going five innings versus Atlanta’s vaunted lineup and picking up a win. Now, with Philadelphia up 2-0 on Arizona in a longer seven-game format, I’m going to assume Rob Thomson can give his Game 3 starter a little more wiggle room — especially if the Phillies’ lineup provides some early run support off the home run prone Brandon Pfaadt.
Suarez was at his best pitching away from Citizens Bank Park during the regular season. In fact, his 2.75 ERA on the road was almost three full runs lower than his 5.45 mark at home. In a convenient microcosm for the entirety of his campaign, we can see how these trends played out in Suarez’s two outings against the Diamondbacks. Back in May, in Philadelphia, Suraez surrendered five earned runs to Arizona in five innings. Then, in June at Chase Field, the southpaw had his best start of the season, tossing seven scoreless frames in what would turn into a 4-3 victory for the Phillies.
In general, the Diamondbacks have struggled with LHPs, sitting 23rd in the league in wRC+ (92) and 27th in ISO (.142) within the split. Arizona has also had a difficult time getting anything going offensively through the first two games of the NLCS, slashing .129/.167/.194 as a team. Any way you slice it, Suarez appears to be in a good spot on Thursday.
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Team Total: Astros Over 4.5 Runs (-115)
When initially breaking down this series, Game 4 was always going to be the big question mark when it came to Texas’ pitching plan. Jordan Montgomery will be fine on normal rest for Game 5, Nathan Eovaldi slots in easily to Game 6, but who is going to help get the Rangers 27 outs on Thursday?
We now know the answer is Andrew Heaney, who has admittedly come up huge for Texas in his last two appearances, both in securing a playoff spot against Seattle the final weekend of the regular season and in the ALDS versus Baltimore. Still, Heaney is a wild card. A man that lost his rotation spot in the beginning of September. An LHP that pitched to underwhelming marks in both xERA (4.55) and FIP (4.66) throughout 2023 as he struggled with walks and keeping the ball in the park. Add in the always shaky Rangers bullpen as a backup plan, and I’m having a difficult time believing that Bruce Bochy can piece together a path to a low-scoring victory.
It also just feels like Houston’s bats woke up on Wednesday. The Astros pounded out 12 hits and eight runs in the win and things could have been even more crooked if not for Leody Taveras robbing what would have been yet another Yordan Alvarez home run. Houston crushed left-handed pitching during the regular season to the tune of AL-best marks in both slugging percentage (.470) and wRC+ (122) and this will be the fifth-time the team sees Heaney in 2023. Expect fireworks.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
