It’s a 10-game slate as the Panthers, Bengals, Cowboys, Texans, Jets and Titans all meet their bye week fate. The Dolphins and Eagles play on Sunday night while the 49ers and Vikings square off on Monday night. I can’t wait!!! But that obviously makes the main slate not as great because all those teams score points fluidly like Gretzy on skates. There is still meat on the plate, though, and at least 10 is greater than eight. Let’s dig in and see which players we hate and those we should give greater weight, but not to the point where we inflate. We could be in store for some fierce debate.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are three games with a total of at least 45 points: ARI/SEA (45), LAC/KC (48.5) and GB/DEN (45). All three games are in the afternoon. There are four games with a total below 40 – WAS/NYG (39.5), CLE/IND (39), LVR/CHI (37.5) and ATL/TB (38). There is no double-digit favorite. Seven games are within a field goal: BAL -3 over DET, WAS -2 over NYG, CLE -2 over IND, LVR -3 over CHI, TB -2.5 over ATL, LAR -3 over PIT and GB -1 over DEN. NE, NYG, IND, CHI and DEN are home dogs.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers, $8,300 — The quarterbacks above $6K are gross this week, except for the ones in this game. Mahomes hasn’t been great from a fantasy perspective this season, failing to exceed 26 DKFP in any contest while being held below 20 in weeks four and five. Last season, he topped 30 DKFP seven times so it’s going to happen at some point. This game has a healthy total of 48.5 points and the Chargers could well make this a back-and-forth affair.
Mahomes torched the Chargers in two games last season, but there’s a new defensive coordinator for Los Angeles. Let’s see: 22nd in sack rate and 26th in hurry rate while blitzing at the 14th-highest rate. They have allowed the second-most air yards and the 14th-most YAC. Yum yum for the tummy tum tum.
Other Options – Justin Herbert ($8,000)
Value
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos, $5,800 — After starting the season with 20+ DKFP in three games, Love has scored 19.64 and 7.98 in the last two contests. The most recent was against the Raiders, a team that doesn’t have the most imposing defense. Well, this week Love gets to mend the hearts of all his fantasy supporters because he faces a Broncos defense that is one of the worst in the league. They have allowed the second-most passing yards and most passing touchdowns on the season. The 16.7% pressure rate is the second-worst and the blitz rate is middle-of-the-pack. According to PFF, Love has struggled when under pressure, boasting a 32.8 rating, but when kept clean, that number spikes to 73.5. The Packers are also coming off their bye with Aaron Jones ($6,800) and Christian Watson ($5,600) likely to return, so this is the perfect spot for Love to get right.
Other Options – Joshua Dobbs ($5,300)
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Running Back
Stud
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals, $7,000 — The Seahawks can air it out with the best of them, but the preferred method of attack is to ground-and-pound an opponent into submission. That is a likely outcome this week as the Seahawks are 7.5 favorites at home. Walker has received at least 17 carries in four straight games with a total of six touchdowns. He went for 30.6 DKFP three weeks ago. I’m not saying another thirty-burger will appear on the plate, but I’m not saying it won’t either. The Cardinals have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards and fifth-most touchdowns with 4.5 yards per carry against. PFF has the Cardinals rush defense rated at 29th.
Other Options – Aaron Jones ($6,800), Isiah Pacheco ($6,100)
Value
Zach Evans, Los Angeles Rams vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, $4,000 – The Rams are dealing with injuries at the running back position, as Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers are both likely out for a while. After not receiving a snap this season, Evans was in on six snaps last week after Williams suffered an ankle injury. Granted, Royce Freeman ($4,000) was on the practice squad and has been elevated for this one. While Evans was a sixth-round selection, he’s a very talented back and was a Matt Waldman favorite during the pre-draft process. The Rams like to utilize a bell cow operation and, while the matchup against the Steelers seems daunting, they have allowed the 11th-most yards and the sixth-highest yards per rush this season. Evans will be popular because he’s priced at the minimum and should receive the volume. There is a chance that Freeman is a factor so keep abreast of any news in terms of how McVay may divvy out the snaps this Sunday.
Other Options – Kareem Hunt ($5,000), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,800)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears, $6,200 — The Raiders offense is very concentrated and the Bears have actually been good in run defense, allowing 3.5 yards per carry. Whether it’s Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,200) or Brian Hoyer ($4,900) under center, I think either will be able to pepper this Bears secondary, which is rated 27th in coverage by PFF and has allowed the third-most yards and second-most passing touchdowns on the season. I do like Adams to bounce back from two awful games, but the $2,000 price savings is too much for me to ignore. And it’s not like Meyers will not be a part of the action. Even in Week 3 when Adams received 20 targets, Meyers got 12. Meyers has out-targeted Adams in three games this season.
Other Options – Cooper Kupp ($9,500), Stefon Diggs ($8,900), Keenan Allen ($8,600), Davante Adams ($8,200)
Value
Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders, $3,800 – The aDOT is minuscule like the 5-foot-8, 185-pound frame, but targets don’t care about size. Robinson garnered eight last week, which included one in the red zone. The Commanders are tough to run on and have been exploitable through the air, so that is the path of least resistance and Robinson should be able to take advantage.
Other Options – Darius Slayton ($3,700), Kadarius Toney ($3,800), Rashee Rice ($4,700), Marquise Brown ($5,300), Christian Watson ($5,600)
Tight End
Stud
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers, $8,000 – Kelce is the number one receiving option for Mahomes and leads the team with 46 targets, with 10 of those coming in the money zone. If I think Mahomes is going to have a good game, then you better believe that I’m not forgetting about his beau.
Other Options – Mark Andrews ($5,700), Darren Waller ($5,000)
Value
Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears, $2,700 – For the first four weeks of the season, Mayer was playing around 50% of the snaps. In Week 5, that number increased to 66%. Last week, Mayer played in 81% of the snaps and was second on the team with six targets, two of those coming in the red zone.
Other Options – Jonnu Smith ($3,600)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Packers D/ST at Denver Broncos, $3,700 – The Packers blitz at the sixth-highest rate and are sixth in hurry rate while being 11th in pressure rate. Russell Wilson has a 50.2 pass rating according to PFF when blitzed. The Packers are one-point road favorites and coming off the bye, so they have had plenty of time to break down the tape and implement some things to neutralize the Broncos’ offense.
Other Options – Browns D/ST ($3,300), Giants D/ST ($3,000)
Value
Ravens D/ST vs. Detroit Lions, $2,500 – The Ravens have the second-highest coverage grade according to PFF. They are also tied for the league lead in sacks. The Lions’ running back depth chart is bruised and battered, which could make life a little more difficult for Jared Goff ($6,400) and the Lions’ offense.
Other Options – Chiefs D/ST ($2,400), Falcons D/ST ($2,800)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
